1. Price Trend
According to SunSirs price monitoring, the domestic polyester staple fiber spot price trend is strong this week (1.29-2.5). As of February 5th, the domestic polyester staple fiber spot market average price is 6590 yuan/ton, which is 3.67% higher than the price of 6357 last Friday. , A year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. Most manufacturers have raised their quotations by 200-400 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the main staple fiber futures (2105) on February 5 closed up and closed at 6776, an increase of 158, or 2.39%, from last Friday's close of 6618. International oil prices have risen for five consecutive days this week, leading to significant increases in the prices of staple fiber raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol. Costs have risen, equipment shutdowns and maintenance have increased, downstream stocking, and polyester staple fiber futures stocks have shown a significant increase. However, due to the Spring Festival holiday, actual market transactions have decreased, and polyester staple fibers may be stable and strong before the festival.
2. Factors affecting prices
1. PTA:The domestic PTA spot market trended strong this week. This weekend, the average domestic PTA spot market price was 3995 yuan/ton, up 3.59% from the beginning of the week and down 14.31% year-on-year. International oil prices rose for five consecutive days this week. Costs have soared, and PTA prices have been firm. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, terminal loom factories have gradually reduced their work during holidays, with more wait-and-see attitudes towards raw materials and reduced market transactions.
2. Ethylene glycol: The domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. The average ex-factory price of oil-based ethylene glycol in North China this weekend was 4,816 yuan/ton, up 5.09% from last Friday, and almost flat year-on-year. Port inventory continued to decline, international oil prices continued to rise, and ethylene glycol prices rose sharply. Affected by the in-situ New Year policy, the operating rate of ethylene glycol plants has increased, and the operating rate of downstream polyesters has also been higher than in previous years. However, the operating rate of terminal looms has declined significantly. It is expected that the polyester market will be under pressure after the Spring Festival, and the ethylene glycol market may be affected.
3. Polyester yarn: The domestic polyester yarn market operated smoothly this week. This weekend, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was around 14,167 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week, down 1.35% year-on-year. Recently, the quotation of pure polyester yarn market has been stable, and sales have declined due to the Spring Festival holiday. Downstream weaving factories and light textile material traders basically finished stocking before the Spring Festival, and there were more downtimes and holidays, and the market was gradually deserted.
3. Outlook
SunSirs analysts believe that since the New Year in 2021, crude oil and PTA have continued to rise, which has clearly supported the cost of polyester staple fiber. With the completion of downstream stocking, the polyester market is slowly entering the vacation stage. Actual market transactions are lacking, and the market may be stable before the holiday. The industry is more optimistic about the supply and demand of the market after the holiday. Affected by the increased risk aversion in the market before the Spring Festival, the price of polyester staple fiber may have limited room to rise. However, the crude oil market is still trending strong, and demand recovery in the peak season after the Spring Festival is still expected, and the short-term polyester staple fiber may continue to fluctuate strongly.
