Price trend
According to data from SunSirs, on February 5, the average ex-factory price of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,116.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 233 RMB/ton or 5.09% from last week.
On February 4, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,855 RMB/ton, an increase of 225 RMB/ton or 4.87% from the same period last week.
Analysis review
As of February 4, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 621,200 tons, an increase of 28,400 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 4.79%, and an increase of 12,300 tons from Monday, an increase of 2.02%.
In terms of shipments, the total volume of shipments from Zhangjiagang and Taicang this week increased compared with last week. Among them, the average daily shipment volume of Zhangjiagang was about 12,000 tons, and the average daily shipment volume of Taicang was 3,600 tons.
As of the 5th day, the ethylene glycol operating rate was about 60%, a slight increase from last week, and the polyester operating rate was about 80%, the same as last week.
In terms of equipment, overseas: Iran’s 40,000-ton/year MEG device has recently been shut down for maintenance, and the initial plan is to restart in mid-March; Saudi sharq2# 450,000-ton/year MEG device has been shut down for maintenance, and the maintenance period is expected to be one month Nearby; YANSAB-Saudi Arabia’s 700,000-ton ethylene glycol plant began to shut down on February 1 for maintenance and is expected to continue until February 21; Due to the shutdown of the upstream cracker, the 659,000-ton ethylene glycol plant in Jubail, Saudi Arabia is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance from March 2021 to April. Domestic: The restart of the 50,000-ton plant in Dushanzi, Xinjiang in early February was delayed, and the start-up is pending: Shaanxi extended the 100,000-ton ethylene glycol plant to shut down on January 20. The equipment is still under maintenance and the restart time is to be determined.
Market outlook
This week, the domestic ethylene glycol market rose, traders were speculating, and spot resources were tight. According to market participants, due to the suspension of tariffs of 370 billion US dollars and the recovery of the polyester industry, the profit of ethylene glycol has greatly increased. The current profit of ethylene glycol is about 200 RMB/ton, and the co-production enterprises are more enthusiastic about switching to ethylene glycol. Overseas maintenance affects port inventory, and it is expected that the arrivals at the port will be small, and port inventory will continue to deplete. External ethylene prices have fallen, support from the cost side has weakened, some domestic overhaul devices have restarted, and supply will gradually rise in the later period. With the Spring Festival approaching, market purchases will gradually end, and upward resistance may appear.
