Entering February, the acetone market fell sharply. Taking the East China market as an example, the market offer fell from 8,300 RMB/ton to 7,700 RMB/ton. However, the port’s supply of 14,000 tons was obviously insufficient. According to traders, the arrival of goods was sold in advance. It can be concluded that although many traders have many sources of goods, some of them are reluctant to sell, and the market supply is still relatively tight.
From the downstream market perspective, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the overall downstream procurement is basically coming to an end, the mood of replenishment has slowed, the uncertainty of the epidemic has increased, the variables after the holiday have increased, there are fewer hoarders, and most of them are just needed during the holidays. The downstream MMA is not rising well. Faced with high-priced raw materials, the operating rate of the factory has declined under pressure, and the isopropanol market has also been inverted, and its downstream follow-up is insufficient. In addition, the bisphenol A and MIBK industries have performed strongly and the market is rising. In particular, the bisphenol A market is rising fiercely and is expected to hit a new record high. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the East China market is quoted at 19,200-19,600 RMB/ton, and there are real orders at high price levels.
From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone manufacturers has been maintaining a steady state, and the overall change in 2021 is not significant. Recently, Yangzhou Shiyou’s 320,000-ton/year phenolic ketone plant has a temporary problem at the end of last month, and the plant has reduced the load. The 400,000-ton/year plant of Shanghai Cisa Chemical was shut down in the middle of last month, the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical's plant increased to 80%, and the 400,000-ton/year plant of Sinopec Mitsui was shut down for ten days in late last month. Overall, the social operating rate has been maintained at more than 80%.
From the perspective of ports, the lack of timely unloading of imported goods in the market was the main reason for the sharp increase in the market at the end of last month. With the concentration of 20,000 tons of goods arriving at port at the end of the month, the port inventory increased rapidly and the market supply was loose. Holders offered lower offers under pressure. The offer of acetone in East China dropped from 8,300 RMB/ton to 7,700 RMB/ton.
SunSirs believes that apart from the continued strong support of downstream bisphenol A, there are no other benefits for the time being. It is inevitable that the market center of gravity will fall again. However, the current spot supply has not shown unlimited easing, and the mentality of the holders is relatively flat, the offer is high, and the actual order situation needs attention. SunSirs expects the short-term negotiation price of acetone to be 7,600-7,800 RMB/ton.
