Price trend
The overall market price of ECH declined in January. According to the data of SunSirs’bulk list, as of January 31, the average price of ECH companies was 10,900 RMB/ton, which was 12.80% lower than the price on January 1, and increased 0.93% in a three-month cycle..
Analysis review
In the first ten days of January, the market supply was relatively abundant, manufacturers' sales were not smooth, mid- and downstream product companies lacked confidence in the market outlook, had low intention to purchase raw materials, and the market was operating at a weaker pace. In mid-January, the market continued its downward trend, accumulated inventory increased, demand was insufficient to follow up, and low-priced sources of goods in the market frequently appeared. In late January, the downstream just needed to stock up, so they were cautious and wait and see.
Upstream propylene, as of January 29, the market price of propylene in Shandong stopped falling and stabilized. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of propylene fell all the way at the end of December, and it began to rise on New Year's Day. It was increased by about 100 RMB/ton on the 4th, and it stabilized or rose in the later period, and the overall trend rose in a stepwise manner. It began to decline continuously on the 21st, and had fallen 500-550 RMB/ton to the 28th. It was roughly stable on February 2. The market transaction was between 6,900-7,350 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price was still 6,900-7,000 RMB/ton. Manufacturers are under heavy inventory pressure and shipments are deserted.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose slightly this week, with domestically produced goods at 12,766.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.86% from last week and an increase of 9.12% from the same period last year. The East China market was operating strongly, news of supplier equipment maintenance was fermented, and export demand was good. The industry offered high prices and the downstream holidays were successively closed. The market's acceptance of high prices was low, and the follow-up of buying orders was weak.
Downstream epoxy resin, as of January 29, the liquid epoxy resin in East China had been running smoothly at a high level. The mainstream negotiated price was 25,800-27,000 RMB/ton. The factory mainly supplied orders, and the logistics and transportation were limited near the Spring Festival.
Market outlook
The ECH analyst of SunSirs believes that the overall trend of ECH in January was down. Entering February, there is no inventory pressure on the spot of manufacturers at present, and the downstream mostly needs to follow up. As the downstream pre-holiday stocking is approaching, it is expected in the short term, the ECH market may be adjusted within a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.
