On February 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising more than 2%. Data showed that the settlement price of WTI crude oil in the United States was $53.55/ barrel, up $1.35. Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $56.35/ barrel, or 2.59%, or $1.31, or 2.34%. Due to the decline of crude oil inventory in the United States, the effective production reduction continuously promoted by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and the rising fuel demand caused by the snowstorm in the northeast of the United States, many favorable factors weakened the impact of the epidemic in the short term, and the market rose significantly on Monday.
First of all, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories is the direct reason for the rise in oil prices, which brings more benefits to the market. According to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) a week ago, US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 9.9 million barrels to 476.7 million barrels in the week of January 22, while analysts predicted an increase of 430,000 barrels. Analysts' judgment is mainly due to the impact of cold weather brought by snowstorms in the United States, and the rapid rise in fuel demand has significantly supported oil prices.
According to SunSirs, at present, crude oil is still in the state of long short game. Under the background that the epidemic trend has not yet been reversed, it may be difficult for oil prices to have a big market under this restriction. Many countries are still implementing restrictive measures, especially in the aviation field, which is seriously hit. The demand for aviation fuel is still difficult to improve in the short term. At the same time, the extreme cold weather in the United States in winter will continue to boost the demand for heating fuel oil. The supply side is mainly rebalancing, OPEC+ production reduction is continuing, and Libya's production is also declining, which will balance the risks of the supply side. However, the rise of shale oil production in the United States is still the main uncertain factor of future crude oil supply. Recent data show that the number of active oil and gas drilling rigs of us energy companies has risen for ten consecutive weeks, and the expectation of US crude oil production rising has obviously warmed up. On the whole, the oil price may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the near future. If vaccination can speed up and the virus inhibition efficiency is obvious, there is a greater probability that the oil price will continue to rise.
