Trend analysis
According to SunSirs data monitoring, the cobalt price soared in January 2020, and the cobalt market resumed its rise in the new year. As of January 30, the cobalt price was 324,666.66 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 272,666.66 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month (January 1), an increase of 19.07%; the new year's cobalt market ushered in a surge, ushering in the largest increase since March 2017.
Cobalt price trend in LME market
It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend that the LME cobalt price rose sharply in January. After the shock adjustment of the cobalt price in 2020, the global cobalt market will recover in the new year, and the international cobalt price will rise again. The rise in international cobalt prices is positive for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market has increased momentum.
Domestic mobile phone production and sales data
According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in December 2020, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments were 26.595 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; from January to December, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments totaled 308 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% . In December 2020, the domestic market of 5G mobile phones shipped 18.2 million units, accounting for 68.4% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period. According to data released by IDC, mobile phone shipments reached 385.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2020, an increase of 16 million units year-on-year. Mobile phone sales declined in December, but the year-on-year decline decreased. The decline in mobile phone market shipments has slowed down, and the mobile phone market has an upward trend; the increase in global mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter eased the tension in the mobile phone market; 5G mobile phones have gradually strengthened, and the mobile phone market It may usher in a wave of phone replacements, and 5G mobile phones have become a new growth point in the market. However, the sales of mobile phones for the whole year of 20 years still have a large decline compared with 19 years, and the mobile phone market has limited support for the cobalt market. With the outbreak of 5G mobile phones, the mobile phone market is expected to rise in 2021, and the demand for cobalt is expected to surge, which is more positive for the cobalt market.
Domestic new energy vehicle market
According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 235,000 and 248,000, respectively, up 55.7% and 49.5% year-on-year. In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively. The market for the year was better than expected. The new energy automobile industry has risen against the trend in the weak environment of the automobile industry, reflecting the industry prospects of new energy vehicles, and also indicating that new energy vehicles have entered an outbreak period. New energy vehicles are expected to enter a surge period in 21 years. China Automobile Association predicts 2021 Sales of new energy vehicles increased by 40%. The new energy automobile industry has exploded, and demand in the cobalt market has surged, which is positive for the cobalt market and the cobalt price has increased.
Global new energy vehicle market
According to EV Volumz, a global electric vehicle survey company, global electric vehicle sales were 590,000 in December 2020, an increase of 40% from the previous month. In 2020, global electric vehicle sales were 3.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43%. The global sales of new energy vehicles have skyrocketed, which is good for the global cobalt market, and the rise in cobalt prices is adequate.
Data analysts at SunSirs believe that since the New Year, the cobalt market seems to have been‘stimulant’. Cobalt prices have skyrocketed and the cobalt market has reappeared. But can the cobalt market last forever and what is the room for cobalt prices to rise? Still worthy of our attention. From the demand side, there are signs of recovery in the mobile phone market, which is good for the cobalt market, but the overall production and sales of the mobile phone market is still slightly insufficient. The good for the cobalt market is limited, and the cobalt price is not strong in the future. New energy vehicles have skyrocketed and demand for the cobalt market has surged. The cobalt market has sufficient momentum to rise, but the continued growth of sales in the new energy vehicle market in the second half of 2020 did not bring about a corresponding increase in cobalt prices. It remains to be seen whether the increase in cobalt prices in January is a retaliatory increase or a surge in demand. The recovery of the global cobalt market has also stimulated the positive domestic cobalt market. The overall cobalt market is positive, but it still takes time to test the global cobalt market's return to 19-year levels. Generally speaking, the cobalt market has sufficient momentum to rise and there is still room for cobalt prices to rise in the future. However, the demand in the cobalt market is still unable to support the continuous rise of cobalt prices. It is expected that the rise of cobalt prices will slow down in the future, and cobalt prices will rise slowly in February.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
