Futures: Coke 2105 rose strongly on Thursday, adding more than 19,000 positions. At present, the expectation of US economic stimulus is increasing, the sentiment of fund bullish speculation is warming up. However, the fear of epidemic situation at home and abroad is still on the rise, the maintenance of some steel plants is increasing, and the risk of washing in the high price zone of futures will increase. In the short term, there may be high pressure shocks. Pay attention to the influence of key capital flow and market sentiment changes.
Spot: local coke enterprises raised coke price by 100 yuan/ ton on January 20, which has been implemented. The current de capacity policy has led to the tight supply and demand of coke and a sharp rise. Rizhao, Qingdao port coke prices, transaction stability: quasi first coke 2,850 yuan/ ton, first coke 2,950 yuan/ ton, tax included. Affected by the weather in Fenwei plain, the environmental protection and production restriction were tightened, the operation rate of coke enterprises was fine tuned, the inventory was low and the price was rising strongly; the price of coking coal was rising due to the problems of coal mine renovation and Mongolia customs clearance. The coke inventory of steel plants is low, the pressure of replenishing and stocking is increased, some steel plants increase maintenance, and the port inventory is reduced.
Strategy analysis: at present, the epidemic situation at home and abroad aggravates the market's worry, monetary and fiscal easing strongly supports the economy in various countries, and macro demand expectation still plays a leading supporting role. In China, we should strengthen macro-control and relax policies to stabilize economic growth. The short-term fear of the epidemic has increased, the Hebei epidemic has led to an increase in the maintenance of some steel plants, the release of new production capacity of coke enterprises is expected to appear, and the futures market has dropped sharply from the high price area; however, the supply and demand of spot goods are tight, the price is raised again, and the demand for steel plants to prepare goods at the end of the year is expected to increase, so the support for the low price area is still strong, and attention should be paid to the low capital flow.
