Affected by the new epidemic situation, the global economy was hit hard in 2020, the performance of the international crude oil market was ups and downs, the OPEC+ talks broke down, and the production reduced on a super scale. According to the comparison of the prices in 2018, 2019 and 2020, in 2020, the price of refined oil market dropped sharply at the beginning of the year, then continued to run at a low level, and the fluctuation in the later period was far less than that in 2018 and 2019.
On the whole, according to the data of SunSirs, as of December 31, 2020, the price of gasoline was 5,697 RMB/ ton, with an annual decrease of 14.21%, while the price of diesel was 4,835 RMB/ ton, with an annual decrease of 23.96%.
At the end of January 2020, Wuhan city was closed, domestic transportation and production were restricted, and international oil prices quickly entered the downward channel. The domestic oil product market had frequent bad news, and the oil product declined rapidly. By the end of February and the beginning of March, China's epidemic situation was under control, and all parts of the country actively returned to work and production, but then the negotiations on OPEC+ production reduction agreement broke down, Russia and Saudi Arabia fought a price war, and oil prices plummeted. In April and May, the domestic oil market returned to normal, and the demand for refined oil was guaranteed, but the new crown epidemic spread abroad, the international crude oil price continued to be lower than the floor price of $40/ barrel, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment continued to be in a state of no adjustment. On May 7, 2020, the lowest price of gasoline appeared in the year, with the price of 4,576 RMB/ ton; at that time, the market price of diesel also fell to the low point of 4,800 RMB/ ton.
Since the second half of the year, although the epidemic is still fermenting, the economy continued to recover, and the oil price entered a relatively stable stage. In July, OPEC+ extended its super scale production reduction by one month (9.7 million barrels). From July to October, oil prices have been rising and falling, mainly in the range of shocks. After November, the new crown vaccine made a major breakthrough. In addition, OPEC+ reached an agreement to reduce production in early December, which also sent a positive signal to the oil market, opening an upward channel for international oil prices. The price adjustment of domestic oil products ushered in "four consecutive rises", driving the price of domestic oil products up. From November to December, gasoline prices rose 10.08%, and diesel prices rose 6.12%.
At present, the world economy in 2021 may still be shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic. Although the vaccine has made a major breakthrough and entered the vaccination process, there are still many variables in the current epidemic. The most important factor of oil price around 2021 is still demand.
In 2020, the domestic oil product market demand basically returned to normal, and the fluctuation of oil product market price was mainly affected by the international crude oil price. As countries begin to vaccinate, the world economy will gradually recover in 2021, the demand of international crude oil market will continue to improve, or will return to the pre epidemic level, and the rebound of international crude oil price will continue to benefit the domestic refined oil market. At the same time, with the large domestic refining and chemical enterprises gradually put into production, the problem of domestic oil product oversupply will gradually become prominent. Therefore, in 2021, China domestic oil product market will continue to rebound with the rise of crude oil price, but it will not be able to rise to the level before the epidemic.
