The outlook for gas markets in Canada in 2021 appears mostly positive as exports to the US increase and forecasts for a frigid winter look to draw down the nation's storage surplus while production is set to grow for the first time in three years.
Strong injections all summer left Canada with a record amount of gas in storage to start winter, and mild weather both locally and in downstream markets has kept storage trending at five-year highs. Despite current high inventories, unexpectedly strong exports into the US Midwest are on pace to drive Western Canada to end this winter below the five-year average, even under a normal weather scenario. If cold weather arrives as is forecast, this could cause the AECO–Chicago balance of winter 2020-2021 spread to tighten beyond where it currently sits.
Great Lakes Gas Transmission has been the biggest driver of stronger Midwest exports, with its 1.4 Bcf/d month-to-date average 250 MMcf/d higher than the five-year high for this time. The pipe is delivering more AECO gas to Northern Natural Gas Pipeline in the upper Midwest, possibly due to declining production in Oklahoma, where NNG gets most of its supply.
