Economic mobility in Europe's biggest economies slipped in the week ending Dec. 13, according to Google data, as regional governments announced a new round of curfews, lockdowns, and travel limits to check surging COVID-19 infection rates ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Based on activity at workplaces, retail and recreational sites, and transport hubs, average mobility indexes in Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain were 31.6% below pre-crisis levels in the week, according to the latest Google data, down slightly from 30.9% in the previous week.
During November, mobility levels in the region had slumped to lows not seen since late May following the roll-out of a second-wave of national lockdowns. But infection rates in Western Europe have since accelerated, triggering new restrictions on activity and movement in Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. Italy and Spain have announced tighter controls on gatherings over the Christmas holiday.
Often used as a proxy for energy demand, Google measures mobility on the number of visits and length of stay at locations such as offices based on mobile phone location data.
Demand pessimism
Economic mobility fell in Germany and Spain compared with the previous week, the data shows, with German activity the lowest since the week to Nov. 27.
Mobility improved marginally, however, in France, the UK and Italy.
The International Energy Agency on Dec. 15 cut its estimate for oil demand next year by 170,000 b/d, citing pessimism over a quick return to air travel due to likely delays in rolling out vaccines.
Europe's jet/kerosene demand is forecast to fall 655,000 b/d in December on the year, while gasoline demand is seen 320,000 b/d down year on year due to persisting lockdowns and restrictions on movements, according to Platts Analytics.
Global oil demand will contract by 8.5 million b/d in 2020 with Europe accounting for around 1.6 million b/d of the total, according to Platts Analytics.
