The global crude oil demand forecast has been revised to 96.9m bbl/day in 2021, up from 91.2m bbl/day in 2020, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
The smaller rise is due to weak demand for jet fuel and kerosene as a result of less travel demand in the first half of 2021.
The outlook for 2021 is cautiously optimistic, with the IEA expecting demand for both gasoline and diesel to return to 97-99% of their 2019 levels.
Non-OPEC producers outside of OPEC+ are expected to increase output in 2021 by 400,000 bbl/day after a fall of 1.3m bbl/day in 2020.
Concerns over vaccine efficacity, availability and deployment along with a rise in cases after the winter holidays could bring downward pressure on oil demand in 2021.
The IEA expects the year on year decline in global crude oil demand to stand at 8.8m bbl/day in 2020, a modest 50,000 bbl/day downward revision from the agency’s previous report.
Global supply rose 1.5m bbl/day month on month in November to 92.7m bbl/day as the US recovered from hurricane shut ins and Libya built up production.
