1. Market trend of magnesium market in 2020
On November 30, 2020, the ex-factory cash price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas, including tax, was operating strongly, the overall range was 13500-13900 yuan/ton, and actual order negotiations were the main focus.
2. The specific price range of each region is as follows
Fugu area ex-factory tax-included cash exchange is 13600-13700 yuan/ton; Taiyuan area cash exchange is 13700-13800 yuan/ton; Wenxi area cash exchange is 13800-13900 yuan/ton; Ningxia area cash exchange is 13600-13700 yuan/ton.
Magnesium ingots are national standard (GB/T3499-2011) primary magnesium ingots; non-pickling, no wooden pallets and non-payment of acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.
According to data from SunSirs, the average domestic magnesium ingot market price was 13,600 yuan/ton on November 30, which was an increase of 7.23% from the average market price at the beginning of the month of 12,683.33 yuan/ton, and was 12,333.33 yuan/ton from the valley value of the year (9.21). It was 10.27%; compared with the average market price at the beginning of the year (1.1) of 14,166.67 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.00%.
3. From January to September, magnesium prices fell endlessly
Affected by the epidemic, the export of magnesium ingots was not smooth, superimposed on the sluggish demand in the downstream automobile industry in the first half of the year, and the demand for newly produced magnesium alloys was weak. Magnesium prices fell continuously from January to September. (Note: The proportion of domestic magnesium ingot exports is relatively high)
Magnesium ingot prices bottomed out in mid-to-late September. It is reported that the average price in the third quarter fell to RMB 12,700/ton, a decrease of 3.3% month-on-month and 14.7% year-on-year. Magnesium smelting profit (after tax) fell to a low of RMB 775/ton. It was down 60.3% from the beginning of the year.
4. Magnesium prices have begun to rise in the past two months
In October, the cost factor influencing factors was magnified, prices were low, and profits were meager. Magnesium plants increased their willingness to maintain prices and tentatively increased prices for shipments. Subsequently, the long-short game intensified and the platform operated in shock.
In mid-November, foreign orders focused on purchasing, and the number of enquiries increased. The second round of bottoming and rebound started. After nearly two weeks of rising, the market has gradually entered a long-short stalemate. Market trading performance has slowed down compared with the previous period, and downstream customers have begun to exercise caution.
5. Market outlook
The price rebounded slightly. At the current price, the stockholders in the early stage have higher willingness to ship and the long-short game has intensified. However, the recent non-ferrous volume has skyrocketed, and the magnesium-aluminum ratio has declined. Increase, the shock range is 13,500-14,000 yuan/ton.
