1. Trend analysis
According to SunSirs data monitoring, the cobalt price first fell and then rose in November, and the cobalt price rebounded slightly at the end of November. As of November 30, the cobalt price was 265,333.34 yuan/ton, down from 268,666.66 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), or 1.24%; it was up from the monthly lowest point (November 24) of 262,333.34 yuan/ton. An increase of 1.14%. Cobalt prices rebounded at the end of November, does it mean that the cobalt market has bottomed out? What is the future trend of the cobalt market?
2. Cobalt price trend in LME market
The LME cobalt price fluctuated sharply in November, and the international cobalt market went down, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market. The domestic cobalt price fell under greater pressure. However, the LME cobalt price stabilized in late November, and the downward pressure on the cobalt market was limited.
3. Chinese mobile phone production and sales data
According to statistics from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments in October were 26.153 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%. In October, domestic mobile phone sales fell sharply year-on-year but rebounded from the previous month. In November, due to the sales promotion of Double 11, mobile phone sales are expected to rise from the previous month. The increase in mobile phone sales will drive demand in the cobalt market. The decline in market demand and the increase in supply relative to the cobalt market have worsened oversupply. The cobalt market is under greater downward pressure.
4. Chinese new energy vehicle market
According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 167,000 and 160,000, respectively, up 69.7% and 104.5% year-on-year. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 914,000 and 90.1 respectively. 10,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% and 7.1% respectively. Although the sales of new energy vehicles for the whole year of 2020 still fell slightly year-on-year, it was mainly because last year was the last year of the decline of government subsidies. The early consumption of customers before the decline of subsidies and the decline in consumption after the decline of subsidies caused the 2020 In the first half of the year, new energy vehicles fell sharply year-on-year, while in the second half of the year, new energy vehicles rose sharply year-on-year, indicating that the market demand for new energy vehicles is steadily increasing, and cobalt demand is expected to rise steadily in the future.
5. Customs data
According to data from the customs website, China imported 10,700 tons of cobalt raw materials in October 2020, an increase of 59% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year. From January to October 2020, China's total imports of cobalt raw materials totaled 71,900 tons, which was basically the same year-on-year. The increase in China's cobalt raw material imports in October indicates that the domestic cobalt market has increased and the domestic cobalt market is negative.
6. Market summary
SunSirs data analysts believe that the global cobalt market volatility and decline have dragged the domestic cobalt market recovery, the global cobalt market is still in an oversupply situation, and the cobalt market is under pressure. For the domestic cobalt market, the domestic cobalt market demand is insufficient compared with previous years, but the overall demand is slowly picking up. The sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones are slowly rising. The domestic cobalt market demand may usher in a short-term outbreak, but the overall demand is still lower than the same period last year ; And the total import of cobalt raw materials was the same as last year, the supply of cobalt market was stable and the demand fell, and the momentum of the cobalt market was insufficient. In general, the cobalt price may see a shock rebound in the short term in the market outlook, but the upward momentum of the cobalt market is still insufficient to support the bottoming of the cobalt market. The cobalt market is still in a "bear market". It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and fall in December.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
