According to SunSirs price monitoring, since mid-August this year, the domestic spandex market has been rising. As of November 16, the average ex-factory price of 40D was 40,800 yuan/ton. The increase in the past three months was 32.04%, a year-on-year increase of 28.87%.
Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market
Spandex manufacturers have also issued notices of price increases many times. On the one hand, it is mainly due to the increase in upstream costs. On the other hand, the downstream end customer orders have followed up well. The manufacturer’s previous backlog inventory has gradually cleared out, and the inventory level has dropped to a historical low, even Part of the batch number is tight, and the price of each specification has risen by 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton from the beginning, and directly increased by 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton in the later period. The current 40D price of the factory ranges from 35,000-43,000 yuan/ton. The market is still strong, the industry is running at a high level near 90% of the start, and the supply of goods is still slightly tight.
The upstream raw material pure MDI started to rise. Since the beginning of August, the domestic spot market price of pure MDI was 13,500 yuan/ton, and to 35,000 yuan/ton in early November. It took 3 months and the price more than doubled. Especially since the National Day holiday, the market has heard that there is an overhaul plan, and the starting load has maintained a low near 4.5%, and the price has risen strongly. However, due to the resistance of downstream customers and the lack of trading atmosphere, the trading center of gravity continued to be weak in November, and the price began to fall. As of November 13, the pure MDI spot market price was referenced to 29,000-29500 yuan/ton wire transfer barrels.
The main raw material of spandex, PTMEG, has a relatively slow increase. The market price in August was weak, and it has slowly risen since September. At the beginning of September, the mainstream price of 1800 molecular weight sources in the spot market was 13800-14500 yuan/ton, and the actual order negotiation was 13700-14300 yuan/ Ton. In November, the cost has strengthened, the supply of PTMEG market is still tight, and the factory's intention to maintain prices continues. The current mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight sources is 16500-17000 yuan/ton, and the actual order negotiation is 15500-16800 yuan/ton. In terms of installations, Shanghai BASF's 110,000-ton plant was running at reduced load and Yizheng Dalian's 40,000-ton plant was shut down. The PTMEG industry started construction at 71%, which is cautious.
In the‘Silver October’market, the downstream market was active in buying and selling, and the backlog of replenishment demand in the early stage broke out, ushering in the peak sales season this year. However, purchases and sales have weakened in November, and the increase in subsequent orders is less than expected. It will also enter the traditional off-season of the industry. After the domestic 'Double Eleven' order, the follow-up order connection is weak, and product inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. However, as Christmas As the Spring Festival is approaching, the market is expected to cool down to a limited extent in the short term under the stimulation of holiday orders. At present, Xiaoshao and Shaoxing areas are generally started, and the circular knitting and wrapping yarn markets are operating at 70%-80%; the companies in Changshu are starting to maintain stability, and the circular knitting market is operating at around 60%; the Fujian market is starting to be acceptable, and the lace remains at 60%. In the vicinity of warp knitting is around 80%; in Guangdong, construction is started cautiously, and the market for wrapping yarn, warp knitting, and circular knitting machines is maintained at 60-70%.
SunSirs analysts believe that the cost-side pure MDI spot market price fluctuated and fell, but PTMEG still maintained its supportive role. Downstream customers are temporarily maintaining on-demand procurement, new orders are being followed up slightly, and the market watching atmosphere is getting stronger. In the short term, the price of spandex will remain high.
