Forecast rain in the coming days is not seen impacting US soybean harvest, as most of the Midwest is set to remain dry, market sources said Sept. 23.
The Midwest is the core soybean producing region of the US and accounts for over 90% of total beans output in the country.
According to the US Department of Agriculture's latest weather report Sept. 23, showers are expected in some parts of the Midwest in coming days. Expected showers are a minor concern for soy harvesting as the affected area is very small.
Soybean harvesting requires dry weather to expedite the crop's maturation, while rain can delay the process.
Rains in the northwestern Midwest should result in only minor harvest delays for corn and soybeans in coming days, weather agency Maxar said Sept. 23.
The drier pattern in the central and southern Midwest and Delta will, however, favor corn and soybean harvesting, Maxar added.
Soybean harvest in the US — the world's second-largest beans supplier — has begun in 17 of the top 18 production states, with a national average of 6%, in line with the five-year average, according to the latest report from the USDA.
September brings the possibility of frost damage to the soybean crop in the northern Corn Belt region, a US climatologist said. However, the August heat made sure that the beans mature quickly this year, the climatologist added.
Recent conditions
US soybeans experienced an extremely dry August, and drought-like conditions emerged in Iowa, a major soy producing state, which impacted the crop's ratings.
The US' soybean crop condition has fallen 10 percentage points within a few weeks to 63% of the total being rated good to excellent, the USDA data showed.
A lower soybean crop rating signals a smaller yield forecast, leading to decreased supply and bullish oilseed prices.
However, a swift soybean harvest is expected to pressure US soybean futures price in coming days. Soybeans futures traded at a multi-year high recently on strong China demand.
November futures have risen over $0.355/bu week on week, the first time since the beginning of US-China trade dispute that prices have traded higher than $10/bushel, an agricultural analyst said Sept. 18.
The USDA has forecast the country's soybean yield at 51.9 bu/acre, up 9% on the year, and output at 117.38 million mt in 2020-21 marketing year (September-August), up 22% year on year.
However, some agricultural analysts expect US soybean yield to fall further on August dry weather and remain below 50 bu/acre in 2020-21, which could be bullish for soybean futures in coming weeks.
