Russian oil deliveries to Belarus are set to increase by 41% on the month to 354,283 b/d in September, details released by pipeline operator Transneft Aug. 31 indicate.
August deliveries were down 38% year on year to 250,638 b/d. Russian deliveries to Belarus have fallen so far in 2020 as a result of a dispute over compensation for the economic impact of Russian oil taxation changes on the Belarusian economy, and a subsequent bid by Belarus to diversify supply options. Deliveries in September 2019 were 8.7% higher than September 2020 plans, at 388,123 b/d.
Deliveries via some other export routes are also set to increase next month.
Exports via Novorossiisk are set to increase by 20% month on month, and but fall 19% year on year to 390,933 b/d in September. August deliveries fell 52% on the year to 326,303 b/d.
Year-on-year comparisons for shipments in 2020 are impacted by the OPEC+ agreement, which has required Russia to cut production volumes significantly from May 2020.
Exports via Primorsk are expected to increase by 13% on the month, and fall 52% on the year to 537,533 b/d in September. August deliveries were down 59% year on year at 472,903 b/d.
Exports via Kozmino are expected to rise 7.5% month on month, and 7.5% year on year to 635,266 b/d in September. August deliveries were at 591,129 b/d, down 18% on the year.
Other routes are expected to see a drop in daily average delivery volumes compared to August next month.
Exports via Ust-Luga are set to fall by 37% month on month and rise 22% year on year to 268,767 b/d. August volumes were up 157% on the year at 425,612 b/d.
Exports to Europe via the Druzbha pipeline are expected to fall by 4.7% on the month, and 15.4% on the year to 869,826 b/d. August deliveries fell 8% year on year to 912,703 b/d.
Exports to China via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and Kazakhstan are expected to fall 7% on the month, and increase 1.3% on the year to 769,650 b/d. August deliveries of 828,762 b/d were down 0.4% on the year.
Domestic deliveries are set to increase 0.6% on the month, and fall 20% year on year, in September to 4.68 million b/d. August deliveries of 4.65 million b/d were down 10% on the year.
Transneft said that the August loading program will be completed in full.
