In recent years, China's real estate development investment has maintained a rapid growth trend. As the pillar industry of China's economy and the direct downstream industry of architectural coating industry, the real estate industry plays a crucial role in the development of architectural coatings. In 2017, under the keynote of "no speculation in housing", the investment in real estate development remained at a high speed, driving the positive development of architectural coating market.
From this we can get the following hypothesis: the real estate investment has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings. The relationship between the urban resident population and the output of architectural coatings has a significant positive correlation between the urbanization level and the real estate demand and supply. Every 1% increase in urbanization rate will bring about 1223400 M2 real estate demand. At the same time, every 1% increase in the urbanization rate also promotes the development of 7.079 billion yuan of real estate development and investment activities, which is called the increase of urbanization rate, which indicates the increase of urban resident population, and the increase of urban resident population promotes the use of architectural coatings. Thus we can get the following hypothesis: the urban resident population has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings. 03. The relationship between broad money and the output of architectural coatings. In recent 20 years, China's broad money (M2) has increased annually. In 2008, with the introduction of the 4 trillion economic stimulus policy, the growth of M2 in China accelerated. Since then, the change of M2 has always been at a high level. In recent 20 years, the annual growth rate of M2 in China has exceeded 16%, and the highest annual growth rate has exceeded 48%. M2 is growing rapidly in China, but the inflation in the fund pool effect of the real estate industry is obvious (it also stimulates the rapid development of the building coating industry.
From this we can get the following hypothesis: broad money has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings. 04. The relationship between GDP and the output of architectural coatings has always been that China's real estate industry accounts for a very high proportion of GDP. In 2018, the real estate sales reached 14.99 trillion yuan. China's GDP exceeded 90 trillion yuan, accounting for 1 / 6 of the GDP. The relationship between GDP and the real estate industry is very close. GDP promotes the real estate industry and promotes the development of architectural coatings. The following hypothesis can be obtained: GDP has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings.
According to the prediction obtained from the above relations, according to the steady development trend of China, the GDP growth rates in 2019, 2020 and 2021 are estimated to be 6.3%, 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively, which is called GDP of 13.85 billion US dollars, j4.71 billion US dollars and 15.58 billion US dollars respectively. The output and annual growth rate of building coatings in 2019, 2020 and 2021 can be obtained as follows: In conclusion, with the steady development of China's real estate investment, the output of coatings will also increase steadily. At the same time, with the increase of the total stock of buildings in the market and the gradual arrival of the market for renovation of old houses and re coating of external walls, the output of architectural coatings will increase steadily in the next three years. By substituting the output of architectural coatings into the relevant formulas, the predicted values of the relevant factors can be obtained as follows: under the sound domestic macro-economy, the real estate industry is steadily rising, and with the arrival of the repaint market, it provides strong support for the development of the architectural coating industry.
Generally speaking, the architectural coating industry has entered a stable development period. It is estimated that by 2021, the output of architectural coatings will reach 8.5962 million tons. For all coating manufacturers, there is still a good market potential and good opportunities in China's architectural coatings market. All coating manufacturers should rationally choose marketing strategies and strive for greater and faster development. Under the background of big data era, the architectural coatings industry should pay attention to data preservation and collation, and apply big data technology to accurately predict market prospects and promote sales. Of course, there are still some deficiencies in this paper. There is a strong collinearity between the architectural coatings industry and the output value of the construction industry, real estate investment, urbanization, M2 and GDP. In addition, some of the renovation area of old houses are not included in the detailed statistics, so more factors and more data can be used for further research. This column is exclusive to VIP members. Please check the details after logging in. Click I log in to become a VIP member immediately. This column is exclusive to VIP members. Please check the details after logging in. Click me to log in and become a VIP member tag: architectural coatings, today's headlines, industry information, market reviews, exterior wall coatings
