Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute should show a 2 million-barrel draw in US commercial crude inventories for the week ending December 9, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Crude oil stocks should draw as refinery utilization remains high, which is likely to offset an expected rise in imports, said Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics.
At the same time, while the week ending December 2 had a disproportionately strong history of showing increases in refinery runs, the reporting week for December 9 tends to show declines in refinery operations, noted Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover.
"Five of the last six years have seen declines in refinery utilization, with four of the declines showing more than a full percentage point lower," Beutel said. "In five of the last six years, we have also seen a decline in crude oil imports, signifying a growing reluctance by refiners to hold barrels over for refining later on."
Refinery utilization is expected to fall 0.1 percentage point to 87.7% of capacity, based on EIA data. However, some analysts, such as Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective, expect to see utilization rates to fall by 1 percentage point.
US distillate stocks should rise about 500,000 barrels, according to analysts.
Traditionally, distillate stocks begin to decline as colder weather leads to draws in stocks, but unseasonably warmer weather has been keeping distillate supplies plentiful, which led to a 2.5 million-barrel increase in inventories for the week to December 2.
However, the reports for the week ending December 9 could show some restraint, as cooler weather has moved into parts of the country.
Distillate stocks have been lower in three of the last five years, and down four out of the last six years, said Beutel. The five-year average is a draw of 39,000 barrels.
US gasoline stocks were higher in four of the last five years and five of the last six years. The six-year average is a build of 1.047 million barrels.
Analysts are anticipating a 2 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks as refinery runs remain high amid lackluster demand.
