Russian national interests will remain ahead of climate action, making the country one of the slowest to decarbonize globally, according to a new report by S&P Global Platts Analytics.
Although Russia ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in September, Russian interests are focused on developing power equipment manufacturing, social welfare and security of supply, the December 4 report said.
"Investments in the power sector are driven by distinct technology-specific capacity auctions, which will guarantee a stable role for nuclear and hydro," it said.
With cheap gas and coal resources, however, fossil-fired capacities "remain a compelling option for Russia and thermal demand will remain supported," it said, with gas continuing to dominate and coal's share of the mix stable at around 20%.
Platts Analytics expects renewables to increase from a low base of less than 1% of the generation mix, but remain marginal due to costly local content manufacturing requirements.
Electricity demand would remain on a weak growth trajectory given a stagnating population and a lackluster economic performance, the report said.
"A key downside risk for demand is also the role of efficiency gains," it said, the government's Energy Strategy 2035 targeting a decrease in the energy intensity of GDP, as well as greater efficiency for heating in buildings.
With Russia a net exporter of power to the EU, the fact the country neither had or planned a CO2 pricing mechanism "could become an increasingly politically sensitive issue," the report said.
In line with more ambitious policy proposals on cutting CO2 emissions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has promised to look at a carbon border tax for all imports, including electricity.
"Although this is very unlikely to happen anytime soon, the proposal could pose additional risks for Russian power flows," the report said.
