Crude futures settled lower Monday, although remained within a well-worn range, pressured by continued global demand growth concerns.
ICE front-month Brent settled at $62.18/b, down 33 cents, while NYMEX front-month crude settled at $56.86/b, down 38 cents.
Macroeconomic data released Monday was far from bullish. India's industrial production index came in at 123.3 for September, down 4.3% year on year, with most components showing declines, government data showed. The heavily-weighted manufacturing index was down 3.9% year on year, widening from August's 1.6% year-on-year contraction.
The April-September 2019 period is still showing year-on-year growth, at 1.3%, lifted by gains in the April-July period.
UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics. Third-quarter 2019 GDP grew 0.3%, but both July and August GDP were revised lower.
Industrial production figures have been mixed recently, with Japan and South Korea showing negative results for Q3, but an improvement from the second quarter. Taiwan's industrial production climbed during Q3.
According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, "manufacturing inventory levels have recently started to come down in these Asian economies, and that will likely support activity in the coming months."
Monday's data followed US President Donald Trump's announcement Friday that he has not agreed to unwind tariffs against China, contradicting earlier statements as part of an interim trade deal between the two countries.
"We remain skeptical on how fast the progress will be, as the timing of when the deal will be signed, how soon any possible roll back will take place, as well as the magnitude of the rollback, will be crucial to determine the material long lasting positive impacts towards the global economy," said Samuel Siew, investment analyst at PhillipFutures in a note.
The market will be watching Japan's GDP and China's industrial production index for further direction. Both are due out Thursday, as is the US Energy Information Administration weekly inventory data, which will be delayed because of a federal holiday.
In refined products, NYMEX front-month ULSD settled at $1.9142/gal, down 39 points, and front-month RBOB settled at $1.6099/gal, down 2.38 cents.
With an arctic front hitting the Northeast this week, heating demand in the region is expected to rise, which should be supportive for ULSD futures. US Atlantic Coast distillate stocks are tight, at roughly 27% below the five-year average, according to US Energy Information Administration data.
However, that arctic front is also hitting the US Midwest, where farming activity has already been delayed by wet and cold weather. That could prove bearish for ULSD.
