Iran exported less than 500,000 b/d of oil in June and July as US sanctions have taken more than one in five Iranian barrels off the global market, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday.
"Before the sanctions regime was put in place, there were [around 2.7 million b/d] being shipped by Iran to all around the world," Pompeo said following a speech in Thailand, according to a transcript. "The number for June and July, each of those two months, was less than a half a million barrels, could have been closer to zero than to half a million."
In an interview with S&P Global Platts last month, Brian Hook, the US State Department's special representative for Iran, said Iran's oil exports likely fell below 300,000 b/d in June.
Shipments of Iranian oil fell below 550,000 b/d in June from about 875,000 b/d in May and about 2.5 million b/d in June 2018, according to data from S&P Global Platts trade flow software cFlow. Roughly half of Iran's crude exports were shipped to China in June and July, according to that data.
In its reference case, S&P Global Platts Analytics forecasts roughly 400,000 to 450,000 b/d of crude and condensate exports out of Iran in the second half of 2019.
"Higher Chinese imports are unlikely, as the large oil companies will avoid risking their access to the US market and financial system," Paul Sheldon, Platts Analytics' chief geopolitical advisor, said in a note Thursday.
On July 22, the US announced sanctions on Chinese state-owned trading company Zhuhai Zhenrong Limited and its chief executive Youmin Li for violating US restrictions on Iran's oil sector. But sources said that additional sanctions, particularly potential actions impacting China's central bank, may be more difficult for the US to impose, due to the possible impact on the global economy.
Pompeo, in Thailand for a gathering of ASEAN diplomats, said Friday that the US "will continue" to sanction buyers of Iranian crude as it works to zero out Iranian exports.
"The sanctions have been very effective, and we will enforce them everywhere," Pompeo said. "We'll enforce them against any company, any country, that continues to violate those sanctions."
