Nordic hydro reservoir levels barely rose in week 28 to July 14, turning the previous week's surplus into a small deficit, Nord Pool data showed Wednesday.
In week 27 stocks across Norway, Sweden and Finland were 1.2 percentage points ahead of long term norms. Now, at 73.6% nominal capacity, the figure is minus 0.6 percentage points below norms.
Net inflow of just 200 GWh in week 28 was down over 2 TWh on the previous week, but stocks remain at a relatively healthy 92.76 TWh.
"We see some mixed signals from the weather forecasts Wednesday, where the wet outlook for the end of July has been replaced by a bit drier conditions," broker EnergiDanmark said.
Precipitation is still expected above average for the remainder of July, however,implying a neutral to slightly bearish outlook for Nordic power markets, it said.
For Norway, Scandinavia's dominant hydro reservoir player, calculated inflow of 2.2 TWh for week 28 was 45% below normal, national energy directorate NVE said.
"The increase in week 29 is expected to be 2.0 TWh, which is 47% below normal," it said. Net evaporation at this time of year is put at around 0.8 TWh.
Remaining snowpack around Norwegian hydro reservoirs was estimated by NVE at 7 TWh, 2 TWh below norms.
Nordic system spot prices have continued to rise over the last two weeks, those for deficit market Finland showing exceptional volatility.
Across the region spot prices began week 28 (July 8 delivery) at Eur30.63/MWh ($34.06/MWh), rising to Eur36.85/MWh for delivery Friday, July 12.
This week the rate of increase has eased, Nordic system spot settling for Thursday delivery at Eur38.74/MWh.
Finnish spot power meanwhile has been on a white knuckle ride on volatile wind output and generation fuel/carbon prices, rising from a working day low of Eur33/MWh for Monday, July 8 to Eur56.56/MWh for Thursday.
On the curve the August baseload contract on Nasdaq has continued to rise since becoming the new front month, from Eur29.50/MWh June 30 to trade last at Eur38.95/MWh according to exchange data Wednesday.
The Q4 baseload contract has demonstrated a similar shape, dipping to Eur36.80/MWh on the last day of June and rising since, to a latest trade of Eur42.85/MWh, exchange data showed.
Finally Cal 20 power at Eur38.00/WMh Wednesday was up Eur1.80/MWh since the startof July as CO2 prices remained close to multi-annual highs of Eur28.38/MWh.
