Depletion of Nordic hydro reservoir stocks accelerated into week three of 2019 with net outflows equivalent to 3.564 TWh of electricity, Nord Pool data showed Wednesday.
The rate of weekly depletion had returned to late 2018 levels ahead of forecast colder weather and below average precipitation.
"Except for a few days during the coming weekend, precipitation is expected well below average until week 6, and temperatures will remain steadily below normal as well," said broker Energi Danmark in a note Wednesday.
The outlook combined with a perceived hydro deficit to send Finnish and Norwegian and Swedish baseload spot prices up Eur78-Eur79/MWh ($89-$90/MWh) for delivery Thursday, from Eur67-Eur68/MWh a day earlier.
Reservoir content across Norway, Sweden and Finland as of week three stood at 54.6% (or 66.3 TWh) of theoretical maximum, having peaked at 77.4% in October last year. The long-term average (1990-2012) reservoir content for week 3 is 63%, Nord Pool data showed.
NVE data Wednesday showed Norwegian hydro reservoir stocks at 57.8% full (or 49.9 TWh versus a theoretical maximum of 82 TWh) for week three. The long term average for the week is 63.9%.
Inflow of 0.7 TWh during the period was 20% below normal, while forecast inflow of 0.5 TWh this week would be 40% below norms, NVE said.
Adding to future deficit fears was snow load of 26 TWh in Norwegian reservoir areas, some 9 TWh down on norms, NVE said.
Nordic electricity demand had increased significantly as temperatures dropped in the week to January 20, driving Norwegian daily power prices up 4%-6% compared to week two to over NOK 500/MWh (Eur51.2/MWh), NVE said.
Norway was a net importer of 39 GWh in week three, pulling in cheaper power from neighbor Sweden, which exported a net 270 GWh, Nord Pool data showed.
The flow switched in recent days with Norway net exporting 179 GWh while Sweden net imported 0.5 GWh across the first three days of this week.
