Shutdowns planned for all three major projects in the country
Output to grow in Jan, Feb but drop in Mar-May: minister
2018 crude output to grow 4.7% on year to 1.813 million b/d
Kazakhstan expects major maintenance work planned for its three major upstream projects in 2019 to help it to meet commitments under the OPEC-led production cut deal, energy minister Kanat Bozumbayev said Wednesday, according to Kazakh news website Kapital.kz.
"In 2019, major maintenance is planned at all three key projects that jointly produce 75% of [the country's] output. Some of the fields will be shut down ... for a 1-1.5 month," Bozumbayev, said referring to Kashagan, Tengiz and Karachaganak projects.
In December, OPEC and 10 non-OPEC countries agreed to remove 1.2 million b/d from the market, starting from January, in a move designed to help the market rebalancing. Under the six-month deal, Kazakhstan is to reduce its output by 40,000 b/d.
Under the initial deal effective from January 2017, however, the country was mainly unable to meet its obligations as output growth from the giant Kashagan field, along with increases from the two other big projects, exceeded natural decline at mature fields.
Due to the maintenance work in 2019, crude production in Kazakhstan is likely to reduce to around 89.5 million mt in 2019, down 0.9% from 90.3 million mt in 2018, Bozumbayev said, speaking to reporters in Astana, according to reports by local media.
Bozumbayev pledged Kazakhstan will be meeting its obligations under the OPEC-led deal but noted that the production levels will be calculated as an average for the year rather than on a monthly basis. "It is our plan to secure the commitment - minus 40,000 b/d - and we'll maintain our production in a way to ensure the average annual output in line with our obligations," he said, as reported by Prime news agency.
"It is possible that we'll exceed [the ceiling] in January-February, but expect that [output] will be significantly below the commitment in March, April and May," the report cited Bozumbayev as saying.
Continuing natural decline at a number of fields in the Kyzylorda and Aktyube regions will also help to limit production, he added.
Kazakhstan's output ceiling is set at 1.86 million b/d under the new production cut deal, compared to 1.9 million b/d in October, the reference level used by the bulk of participating countries to reduce the output.
OUTPUT IN 2018
This year, Kazakhstan's crude production is estimated to grow by 4.7% year on year to 90.3 million mt, Bozumbayev said, citing preliminary data. This translates into 1.813 million b/d of average annual output.
The three major projects produced a total of 53.9 million mt, significantly exceeding initial plans. Kashagan pumped 13.2 million mt - 20% above its initial plan - Tengiz produced 28.6 million mt - exceeding the plan by 3.3% - and Karachaganak produced 12.1 million mt - 100.8% of the plan - media reports cited the energy ministry's preliminary data.
The ministry estimated crude exports from Kazakhstan to grow 2.4% year on year to 71.5 million mt in 2018 and refining throughput to increase by 8% year on year to 16.1 million mt, following modernization of the country's three refineries.
Gas production is estimated at 54.8 Bcm in 2018, up 2.6% year on year. Gas exports to grow by 10.4% year on year to 19 Bcm.
