The installation of US utility-scale, residential and non-residential solar in Q3 2018 was "held back" by the 30% tariff on imported solar panels imposed by the Trump administration in mid-January, a report released by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday. The report said that in Q3 2018, solar installations totaled 1.7 GW, a 15% decrease from Q3 2017 and a 20% decrease from Q2 2018.
"For the first time since 2015, quarterly additions of utility-scale solar photovoltaics fell below 1 gigawatt [in Q3] highlighting the impact of the tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them in late 2017 and early 2018," the report said. "As a result, the U.S. solar market was down 15 % year-over-year in the third quarter of the year," but added that a "strong project pipeline lies ahead."
The SEIA report, produced by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, said that some solar developers that originally planned to bring projects online in Q3 2018 were forced to push out completion dates to Q4 2018 or Q1 2019 "due to uncertainty around tariffs."
Q3 was the third consecutive quarter in which residential rooftop PV was flat on both a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, "after a year in which the market contracted by 15%."
Non-residential PV in Q3 2018 grew 6% quarter on quarter, but declined by 6% year on year.
TARIFFS ON SOLAR CELL AND MODULE IMPORTS
On January 22, 2018, the US Trade Representative announced that the Trump administration had approved tariffs of 30% on imported crystalline silicon cells and solar modules, otherwise known as panels, in 2018, with tariffs declining 5% in each of the following three years to a level of 15% in 2021.
The tariffs fall most heavily on cells and panels manufactured and then exported by Chinese companies to the US. Chinese companies produce about 60% of the world's solar cells and 71% of solar modules.
The USTR has accused China of increasing its capacity and production of solar cells and modules "by using state incentives, subsidies, and tariffs to dominate the global supply chain."
According to the USTR, from 2012 to 2016 the volume of solar generation capacity installed annually in the US more than tripled, "spurred on by artificially low-priced solar cells and modules from China."
In 2016, the USTR said, developers relied upon imports for 80% of the solar panels it used in installing a record 14,626 MW of solar generation.
In 2017, as the tariffs were being considered, total solar installations fell 27.5% to 10.6 GW.
Wood Mackenzie said in its report that its forecast for 2018 is 11.1 GW.
Despite the impact of tariffs on 2018 installations, the 1.7 GW of solar installations in Q3 2018 pushed the total installed solar capacity in the US to 60 GW, according to the report.
