A total of 14.578 million mt of sugarcane ws crushed in Center-South Brazil during the second half of November, down 31.5% from 21.296 million mt crushed during the first half of November, and down 4.54% from the year-ago period, according to data released Tuesday by trade association UNICA.
The volume crushed was about 578,000 mt above market expectations, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts released Monday.
"As expected for the last quarter of the year, intense rains in every sugarcane-producing state promoted a reduction in the harvesting rate, as well as the postponement of the end of the harvest in many Center-South mills," said Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, technical director at UNICA.
The cumulative amount of cane crushed so far this season is now up to 544.32 million mt, down 4.53% from 570.167 million mt in the year-ago period, according to UNICA.
The 2018-2019 sugarcane season began April 1 in the key Center-South region, the largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the world. However, chronic dry weather has been widely expected to bring an early end to crushing, with the season seen closing a month to six weeks earlier than usual.
Some 45 mills ended crushing during H2 November, bringing the total to 131 mills having completed the harvest through December 1. The number trails last year's figures, when 150 mills ended operations through the same point.
Total recoverable sugar (ATR) levels averaged 120.62 kg/mt of cane in H2 November, down 5.3% from the 127.40 kg/mt of cane recorded in H1 November, and down 11.81% from the year-ago period. The H2 November level missed market expectations of 124 kg/mt of cane.
Unusually dry weather during the sugarcane season in the Center-South has bolstered the average ATR level since April 1 to 139.09 kg/mt, an increase of 1.15% on the year, according to UNICA.
Sugar production in Center-South Brazil in H2 November totaled 528,000 mt, down 40% from H1 November levels of 880,000 mt, and down 27.49% from the year-ago period, UNICA said. Production during the period beat estimates of 515,300 mt.
Cumulative sugar production between April 1 and November 30 was 25.761 million mt, down 26.82% compared with crop year 2017-2018. The total beat the Platts survey estimate by 21,000 mt.
Brazilian mills have shifted production toward hydrous ethanol due to its greater profitability and strong sales. Hydrous ethanol output in H2 November totaled 524 million liters, down 27.7% from the 725 million liters produced in H1 November, and up 4.39% from the year-ago period. The total beat analyst expectations of 494.6 million liters.
Cumulative hydrous ethanol output has risen 43.37% year on year, hitting 20.111 billion liters so far in crop year 2018-19.
Anhydrous ethanol production in H2 November was 220 million liters, down 38.89% from H1 November output of 360 million liters, and down 26.74% compared with the year-ago period.
Cumulative anhydrous production was up to 8.980 billion liters through November 30, down 14.53% year on year.
The proportion of mill output of ethanol compared with sugar rose to 68.5% from 65.97% in H1 November, while sugar production fell to 31.5% over the same period.
The cumulative share for sugar and ethanol is now 35.71% sugar and 64.29% ethanol, with the share of ethanol production increasing 11.41 percentage points from the previous harvest, when 47.12% of cane went to sugar production and 52.88% to ethanol production.
Total ethanol sales reached 2.62 billion liters in November, of which 2.51 billion liters were sold domestically and 104.52 million liters were exported, UNICA said.
Domestic hydrous ethanol sales totaled 1.83 billion liters, an increase of 24.77% from the same period in 2017, when 1.47 million liters were sold, UNICA said.
Domestic anhydrous ethanol sales totaled 682.47 million liters in November, 13.3% below 2017 sales of 787.18 million liters.
On a cumulative basis, overall ethanol sales from April 1 through November 30 totaled 20.43 billion liters, with 19.32 billion liters sold domestically and 1.12 billion liters exported, an increase of 17.06% compared with the year-ago period, UNICA said.
