The amount of sugarcane crushed in the second half of November in Brazil's key Center-South region was expected to be 14.0 million mt, down 8% year on year and 34.1% lower than the previous two-week period, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts found Monday.
That would be the lowest volume of cane crushed in the 2018-19 season. Industry association UNICA will release its official production figures on Tuesday.
The drop in volume was because it is the end of the season, with mills crushing less cane amid regular rains, sources said.
Analysts surveyed by Platts expected an average of 6.5 days lost to rain, compared with 4.7 days in H1 November and 6.8 days in the year-ago period.
If analysts' expectations were realized, the cumulative cane crush so far this season would reach 543.69 million mt, down 4.6% year on year.
The cane's total recoverable sugar (ATR) was expected to show a decrease due to the wet weather at 124 kg/mt, down from 128.7 kg/mt in the previous two weeks. That figure would be a drop of 12.77 kg/mt year on year. According to the analysts surveyed by Platts, the range was between 121.0 kg/mt and 125.11 kg/mt.
The proportion of cane used for sugar production in the Center-South in H2 November was expected to have increased to 31% from 30% in the previous two-week period, according to the survey. It is still much lower than the 36.58% registered in the year-ago period.
As a result, sugar production was expected to total 515,300 mt in H2 November, down 29.2% year on year and 41% lower than H1 November.
Cumulative sugar production between April 1 and November 30 would reach 25.74 million mt, decreasing 26.9% year on year. That was a slight increase from H1 November's 10-year lows. As more of the sugarcane is expected to continue to be used for ethanol production compared with last year, hydrous ethanol output in H2 November is expected to reach 494.6 million liters. This would be an increase of 3.2% from a year ago and an increase of almost 15.56% from H1 November.
Based on the analyst survey, April 1-November 30 hydrous ethanol production would be 43.2% higher than the year-ago period at 19.81 billion liters.
The volume was an all-time high and already exceeds the total volume produced in the entire season of 2010-11. when a record 17.97 billion liters were produced.
Anhydrous ethanol output in H2 November was expected to reach 224.9 million liters. This would be a decrease of 24.8% from a year ago and a decrease of 35.5% from H1 November. It would be the lowest since the start of the season.
Based on the analyst survey, April 1-November 30 anhydrous ethanol production would be 15.3% lower than the year-ago period at 8.86 billion liters.
