The NYMEX January natural gas futures contract showed lower volatility in Monday morning trading, shedding 2.5 cents to $4.463/MMBtu.
The NYMEX January contract has traded so far Monday between $4.39/MMBtu and $4.663/MMBtu.
February and March -- the remaining months of the winter strip -- are trading at $4.357/MMBtu and $4.138/MMBtu, respectively.
Further out, in the balance of the 2019 contracts, April to October rose 1.5 cents to average $2.927/MMBtu.
Fundamentals were unchanged Monday, echoing the relatively moderate NYMEX gas movements. S&P Global Platts Analytics data showed US production falling 300 MMcf after a weekend where total US output averaged 85.8 Bcf/d.
Demand also remained flat, lingering above 100 Bcf/d the past week. Total demand dropped Monday to 103.9 Bcf/d, with further declines expected over the next two weeks.
Platts Analytics data forecast demand to drop roughly 10 Bcf/d over the coming seven days to 93.5 Bcf/d in the week-out forecast. Further out, over the next eight to 14 days, demand is forecast to average 91.9 Bcf/d.
National average temperatures are forecast to rise above 40 degrees Tuesday after averaging 37.7 degrees over the past seven days. Temperatures nationally aren't forecast to drop below 40 degrees until 14 days out, Platts Analytics data shows.
This means that temperatures are forecast to remain about 3.2 degrees above their average historical norms over the next 14 days.
Stephen Schork, editor of The Schork Report, noted how "everything is out of whack with this winter premium." Technically, he said, "short term we are in a bearish run and it will take a cold spell to get us out of this run -- it'll take 10-12 days out for the real start to winter."
Schork said he is looking forward to Tuesday's release of the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook. He thinks the EIA's end-of-season natural gas storage number will be revised lower and called for 1.13 Tcf in US gas storage stocks to end the winter season.
