A total of 21.296 million mt of sugarcane was crushed in Center-South Brazil during the first half of November, down 14.3% from 24.86 million mt crushed during the second half of October, and down 9.18% from the year-ago period, according to data released Tuesday by trade association UNICA.
The volume crushed was about 196,000 mt above market expectations, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts released Monday."As expected for the last quarter of the year, intense rains in every sugarcane producing state promoted a reduction in the harvesting rate, as well as the postponement of the end of the harvest in many Center-South mills," said Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, technical director at UNICA.
The cumulative amount of cane crushed so far this season is now up to 529.652 million mt, down 4.55% from 554.896 million mt in the year-ago period, according to UNICA.The 2018-2019 sugarcane season began April 1 in the key Center-South region, the largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the world. However, chronic dry weather has been widely expected to bring an early end to crushing, with the season seen closing a month to six weeks earlier than usual.
Some 31 mills ended crushing during H1 November, below UNICA expectations of 79 mills ending their crushing by November 15, bringing the total to 83 mills having completed the harvest. Another 104 mills are expected to stop crushing through November 30, UNICA said.Total recoverable sugar (ATR) levels averaged 127.40 kg/mt of cane in H1 November, down 4.9% from 133.96 kg/mt of cane in H2 October, and down 3.86% from the year-ago period. The H2 October level missed market expectations of 128.7 kg/mt of cane.
Unusually dry weather during the sugarcane season in the Center-South has bolstered the average ATR level since April 1 to 139.61 kg/mt, an increase of 1.51% on the year, according to UNICA.
Sugar production in Center-South Brazil in H1 November totaled 880,000 mt, down 7.37% from H2 October levels of 958,000 mt, and down 29.88% from the year-ago period, UNICA said. Production during the period beat estimates of 777,400 mt.Cumulative sugar production between April 1 and November 15 was 25.229 million mt, down 26.82% compared with crop year 2017-2018. The total beat the Platts survey estimate by 99,000 mt.
Brazilian mills have shifted production toward hydrous ethanol due to its greater profitability and strong sales. Hydrous ethanol output in H1 November totaled 725 million liters, down 24.08% from H2 October output of 955 million liters, and up 19.68% from the year-ago period. The total missed analyst expectations of 816 million liters.Cumulative hydrous ethanol output has risen 44.78% year on year, hitting 19.583 billion liters so far in crop year 2018-2019.
Anhydrous ethanol production in H1 November was 360 million liters, down 11.11% from H2 October levels of 405 million liters, and down 22.48% compared with the year-ago period.Cumulative anhydrous production was up to 8.762 billion liters through November 15, down 14.15% year on year.
The proportion of mill output of ethanol compared with sugar fell to 65.97% from 69.82% in H2 October, while sugar production rose to 34.03% over the same period.
The cumulative share for sugar and ethanol is now 35.81% sugar and 64.19% ethanol, with the share of ethanol production increasing 11.60 percentage points from the previous harvest, when 47.41% of cane went to sugar production and 52.59% to ethanol production.Total ethanol sales reached 1.28 billion liters in H1 November, of which 1.22 billion liters were sold domestically and 56.83 million liters were exported, UNICA said.
Domestic hydrous ethanol sales totaled 902.10 million liters, an increase of 30.84% from the same period in 2017, when 689.47 million liters were sold, but down from 1.07 billion liters sold domestically during H2 October, UNICA said.
Domestic anhydrous ethanol sales totaled 319.76 million liters in H1 November, 19.17% below 2017 sales of 395.60 million liters and down 16.67% from 383.74 million liters sold in H2 October.
On a cumulative basis, overall ethanol sales from April 1 through November 15 totaled 19.10 billion liters, with 18.03 billion liters sold domestically and 1.07 billion liters exported, an increase of 17.56% compared with the year-ago period, UNICA said.
