Weak steel prices and tightening margins drove demand down for high grade fines as mills prioritized on lowering production costs.
S&P Global Platts assessed the 65% Fe Iron Ore Index at $93.80/dry mt CFR North China Wednesday, down $0.65/dmt from Tuesday. The spread between the 65% Fe and 62% Fe iron ore indexes was at $19.25/dmt, lower by $2.20/dmt on the week.
"High grade fines like Carajas fines will only be utilized more if mills are confident in sustainable strong steel margins as the ratio of high grade fines in a blend ratio cannot be adjusted frequently," an eastern Chinese mill source said. "Currently, steel prices are expected to remain weak till next spring at least, and the top concern will be to lower the costs of raw materials," the source added.
"Steel margins have gone from around 1,000 Yuan/mt in the past 2 months to levels of around 600-700 Yuan/mt. Currently, blast furnace performance and efficiency are second to the overall costs of raw materials," a Chinese trader said. "It is difficult for higher grade Brazilian fines to deliver a better cost effectiveness than Australian medium grade fines on this aspect," the trader said.
Meanwhile the increasing supply of higher grade Brazilian fines in the spot market was also pushing prices down.
"Offers for Carajas fines in the seaborne market were heard to be in the $94-$95/dmt range and buying interest is still low," a northern Chinese mill said. "Mills were previously happy to secure Carajas fines at prices below $96/dmt but with tightening margins, prices will have to fall a lot more for mills to consider utilizing them," a northern Chinese mill source said.
"Medium and low grade fines are still traded rather actively at the port stocks market, but Brazilian Blend fines (BRBF) and Carajas fines are becoming increasingly illiquid despite lower offers," an eastern Chinese trader said.
There were market participants who were adopting a wait-and-see approach with the expectation that demand might pick up if pollution controls for the winter season were stringent enough.
"Production of domestic low alumina concentrate will face restrictions during the winter season and buyers may turn to higher grade Brazilian fines as an alternative to maintain the alumina percentage of the blast furnace ratio," a Chinese trader said.
"The exact nature of pollution controls for the winter season is still rather unclear and there may be some uptick in demand for low alumina high grade fines from mills to reduce their coke usage," another Chinese trader said. "In addition, the monsoon season in Brazil from late December to January is expected to reduce shipping volumes of higher grade Brazilian fines. There will be buyers looking to secure some cargoes ahead of time," the source added.
