Global automobile manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce their usage of platinum-group metals in catalytic converters before 2030, experts said.
Speaking to an audience at the LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference, General Motors Global Diesel Technical Specialist Rahul Mital said late Monday that nearly 85% of light-duty passenger vehicles in 2030 will still be powered by internal combustion or diesel engines.
Those vehicles will still need catalytic converters to control the emission of certain gases and pollutants.
"What I think will happen is that more than 85% of the passenger cars are still expected to have an internal combustion engine by 2030, which will use a catalytic converter," Mital said.
Though hybrid-electric, battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles are growing in popularity, Mital said he did not foresee any decrease in PGM demand for those vehicles.
"Those cars have different amounts of precious metals in their converters. In looking at all the data and sifting through various papers that are available to me, cars with electrification are typically going to be certified for low emissions levels, which means that for the converters, there will potentially be more PGMs in them to get to the lower emissions levels," he said.
"Even the cars that are certified for the same emission levels, like hybrids, are still expected to have the same emissions levels because when the battery is not active, the [internal combustion] engine still has to be emission compliant," he said.
Mital said he expects nearly 1 million fuel-cell vehicles to be on the road in 2030, but those vehicles are also expected to contain significant amounts of PGMs. "So that's going to increase PGM demand," he said.
"What I am saying is that PGM usage is expected to stay stable or decrease marginally by 2030, if at all," he said.
And though emissions standards for heavy-duty commercial vehicles are becoming more stringent, the use of such vehicles is likely to remain stable. "So they are probably expected to use even more PGMs," he said.
Amanda Josey, head of global product management, mobile emissions catalysts for German chemical refiner BASF, said more stringent emissions standards around the world will support PGM demand.
"We do expect PGM [demand] to increase, especially with world emissions regulations in the mid-term," she said. "This is driven by more catalysts per unit, by challenges with hybrid vehicles and making sure we have enough performance when the engine is colder."
Catalytic converters are more efficient when engines have been running and are warm.
And though carbon dioxide emissions will improve with electrification and better fuel efficiency, "there are still a lot of [internal combustion] engines that can be used for that," Josey said.
However, PGM demand is not likely to keep rising, she added.
Once automakers develop converters that meeting specific emissions standards, they are likely to begin reducing material costs, she said.
In addition, "most [original equipment manufacturers] today are very concerned and want to keep the precious metals prices" about the same level, Josey said.
