Houston — Brazil is now expected to export a record 73.5 million mt of soybeans in the 2018 calendar year, industry association Abiove said Monday, up 1.94% from its forecast of 72.1 million mt issued in May.
Abiove, which represents large trading houses and crushers like ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus, also increased its crop forecast for Brazil in 2018 (crop year 2017-18) to 118.7 million mt from 118.4 previously.
The increase in the export forecast, which offsets some of the expected increase in production, should affect year-ending stocks, which are now forecast to total 3.865 million mt on December 31, down from 4.965 million mt in the previous estimate.
Brazil's 2018 year-ending stocks are expected to be the lowest since 2010, according to Abiove's data.
Analysts have been raising Brazil's export forecast on the back of the trade war between the US and China, which led to higher tariffs for US beans arriving in the Asian country.
In calendar year 2017 (crop year 2016-17), Brazil produced 113.8 million mt of soybeans, exported 68.16 million mt and left 5.265 million mt in carryover stocks.
