The mood at this June's biannual South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute conference has decidedly shifted to one of relief with the perennial bugbear of "cheap Chinese steel" having taken a backseat.
This contrasted with the more strident tone of the past few years, when the conference saw delegates openly air concerns about a deluge of Chinese steel competing with domestic producers in the region, causing some to shut down due to lack of profitability, and nations to adopt a slew of trade measures in retaliation.
In the first quarter, Chinese steel exports to the six key ASEAN economies fell 29% year on year to 4.45 million mt, an official told SEAISI delegates in Jakarta Monday.
The region's total steel imports fell 14% on the year to 59.8 million mt in 2017, with the share accounted for by China having slipped to 43% from 53%, said Tan Ah Yong, SEAISI secretary general.
Lower Chinese exports amid stronger Chinese domestic prices have come in a year when apparent steel consumption in ASEAN registered a 4.2% decline on the year at 73.8 million mt.
Among the six key ASEAN economies, Indonesia and the Philippines were the only two that saw growth in apparent steel consumption, at 7.3% and 1.5% year on year, respectively.
Consumption in Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and Thailand meanwhile slid, mainly due to a slowdown in construction activity with Thailand falling the most at 14% year on year to 16.5 million mt. The destocking of steel inventory accumulated in 2016 also played a role in the decline in consumption. Despite lower demand by the ASEAN-6, it still relied on imports for more than half of its requirement.
Over the next few years, SEAISI expects steel consumption in the ASEAN-6 to return to positive territory, growing at 5-6% annually, and exceed the 80 million mt mark in 2019.
The construction sector was seen as the main factor driving growth, thanks largely to government infrastructure investment.
Following the three-day Jakarta conference, SEAISI's second biannual conference this year will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on November 26-27, and will focus on steel use in the construction sector.
