After a devastating 2017 hurricane season that had a major impact on US energy production and demand last year, forecasters with AccuWeather are predicting a near normal to slightly above-normal year, with 12 to 15 tropical storms.
Of those storms, six to eight are forecast to become hurricanes, with three to five of those forecast to become major hurricanes. This compares with last year, which saw 17 tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin.
While six of those storms had a direct impact to the US, including the US mainland and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, this year's hurricane season is more likely to result in three or four storms affecting the US, forecasters said.
"We're expecting another active season, but not as active as last year and without as much impact, which is pretty easy to say given how much damage and how destructive the storms were last year," Dave Samuhel, senior meteorologist, said Monday in an interview.
AccuWeather meteorologists looked at several factors, including water temperatures in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, global weather patterns and long-range computer models to create the forecast Samuhel said.
Although the atmosphere is currently in a weakening La Nina pattern, the climate pattern is expected to shift to a more neutral pattern, which promotes near-normal wind shear that, in turn, should limit tropical development, the meteorologists found.
But this year higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures are creating a cause for concern as warm water creates more favorable conditions for tropical storm development.
Last year, several Category 5 hurricanes made US landfall causing substantial damage, Samuhel said. "This year, the problem is the Atlantic is so warm and there'll be a lot of moisture available for any storms. We expect that roughly half of the tropical storms that form will be able to strengthen into hurricanes," he said. Last year, hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria created massive damage from Texas to Florida on the US mainland to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
"We're expecting six to eight hurricanes and it only takes one hurricane to hit a vulnerable spot to be a huge problem," Samuhel said.
Hurricanes and tropical storms can affect the natural gas supply and demand balance in two ways: storms hitting producing regions, particularly in the offshore Gulf of Mexico, can cause supply disruptions; and, after making landfall, storms can go on to wipe out demand by shutting down manufacturing facilities and causing large-scale power disruptions.
According to the AccuWeather forecast, conditions are ripe for early-season development in the Gulf of Mexico, where the majority of US offshore oil and gas production is concentrated, because of warm water already in place in that part of the Atlantic basin.
As for the rest of the season, historical records and the projected pattern suggest the area from Houston to Florida and up through the Outer Banks of North Carolina will be more favorable for direct effects from tropical storms and hurricanes, the AccuWeather forecast predicts.
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Tropical storms 12 to 15 Hurricanes 6 to 8 Major hurricanes 3 to 5 Named storms making US landfall 3 to 4 Source: AccuWeather
