Spot prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint strengthened Monday on falling wind generation, despite weaker load expected Tuesday, while forward market seemed to stay little changed after setting record highs for the past few weeks.
ERCOT North Hub next-day power futures for Tuesday delivery rose about $3 to the high $20s/MWh on Intercontinental Exchange, about 50 cents below where balance-of-the-week package traded.
ERCOT projected peakload to reach 41.6 GW Monday, 37.6 GW Tuesday, 42.4 GW Wednesday, 43.2 GW Thursday and 38 GW Friday.
Wind generation was projected to fall from 235 GWh Monday to 139 GWh Tuesday, a sharp decline of over 40%.
On an hourly basis, wind output has averaged 12.7 GW so far Monday, reaching as high as 14.2 GW near midnight.
Surging wind generation pushed real-time prices lower, as West Hub prices stayed negative for 4 hours ending 4 am CST Monday.
North Hub balance-of-the-day on-peak was valued in the low $30s/MWh on ICE while Houston Hub counterpart was valued in the mid-$30s/MWh.
Above-normal temperatures expected in Texas on Monday were projected to fall near norms Tuesday through mid-week, with highs in Houston falling from the low 80s degrees Monday to the high 80s Tuesday and high 60s Wednesday, compared to the seasonal norms in the low 70s, according to CustomWeather data.
In the forward market, ERCOT prices seemed to stabilize after a strong week, as North Hub July-August 2018 on-peak package was framed in the high $140s/MWh on ICE, up about 50 cents from the prior settlement.
According to S&P Global Platts M2MS data, North Hub August on-peak reached its all-time high at around $184/MWh on March 1, but falling slightly to $182/MWh on March 2.
The August contract rose more than $21 last week, after rising about $40 the week before.
The US National Weather Service projected above-normal temperatures in Texas from June through August, with below-normal precipitation expected over the same time, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat waves in the summer.
