The gold price is likely to head higher over the next week on the back of a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand, S&P Global Platts gold market participants survey indicated Friday.
Participants forecast prices in a range of $1,280-$1,335/oz, up from $1,280-$1,300/oz at the last survey November 10.
The London Bullion Market Association Gold, administered by IBA, settled Thursday afternoon at $1,290.35/oz from $1,284.30/oz on the afternoon of November 10.
Looking at the much discussed and watched US interest rate meetings, ANZ told clients that traders were "continuing to weigh up the impact of the slightly more dovish minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting [Wednesday]."
One banker said that he wasn't overly bullish on the dollar gold price outlook in 2018, forecasting it to be widely in range. However, he cautioned that support should come in the form of a more "fragile" global economy than fiscal indicators have been pointing towards throughout 2017.
Mid-week the US Fed said in its meeting that a December rate hike is still on the cards.
However, Commerzbank said that "this rate step has already been priced in to a great extent by the market. That said, the Fed also voiced concern in the minutes about low inflation in the US," adding that as such "it could raise interest rates at a slower pace than presently expected in the next few years."
The banking source agreed, saying that he believes there will only be one increase in 2018, if any, and that this should continue to be gold supportive, even if not pushing it higher.
Looking at physical markets, one broker told S&P Global this week that the last quarter of 2017 had been "dire, there's nothing going on."
The broker was fairly downbeat about expectations for 2018 as well.
JP Morgan said in an outlook piece this week, "given solid economic growth, a possible bottoming out in inflation and the potential further Fed repricing US real rates should rise, pushing prices lower. We stay tactically short gold."
Still, a lower gold price could help to possibly bring physical players to the table.
In India, the world's second largest consumer of physical bullion after China, conditions have been poor for the bulk of the week. However, one broker in Delhi said that things had started to pick up on Friday.
On Thursday, Platts Gold Premium India 995 assessment came in at minus $2/oz. One wholesaler said that he'd sold only 300 kg at that level, and that buying remained tepid.
A range of indications were heard Friday, from flat to minus $2.5/oz.
This year has not only seen low wedding season demand, but also slack buying around key festival Diwali.
Other sources said that conditions would likely only get worse headed into year-end.
The Indian government's decision to revise the Goods and Service Tax rule for gold saving schemes is unlikely to change current low demand, according to market sources.
The amendment, which was implemented after the GST council's meeting on November 10, means investors paying into gold savings deposit schemes no longer have to pay tax on each installment, but instead pay the 3% levy only when the gold is redeemed.
The move was initially deemed a positive signal for sluggish local jewelery buying in the current wedding season, which has been one of the worst for demand in years, according to sources, with no more upfront tax payments by customers and less paperwork for jewelers.
In China a premium of around $9/oz was heard in the market this week, with Dubai ranging from minus $1.25 to flat.
