The potential closure of two of Spain's largest coal plants depends upon the outcome of two governmental decrees that are in process, according to the CEO of Endesa, which operates the plants.
"The company position is that it considers the two plants at Compostilla and Teruel [1.1 GW apiece] to be uneconomically viable under current market and regulatory conditions," Jose Bogas told analysts on a conference call Wednesday.
Spain's government last week published a draft decree which will give it the power to prevent proposed plant closures if it deems that this would result in a threat to security of supply or cause an "unfavorable effect on electricity prices."
However, the country is also in the process of drafting its new Energy Transition and Climate Law, which aims to align Spanish policy to multilateral objectives.
"For this reason we are waiting for the final details, not just of the closure decree but also the energy transition law before taking a decision [on the ultimate closure of the plants]," he said.
While the company has committed to full decarbonization by 2050, it also acknowledges the country's need to retain baseload plants in the short term to prevent a spike in prices, and retain supply margins.
In either case, the company said that should any of its closure requests be denied, as a public service obligation, it would expect to be compensated properly.
Endesa has started the necessary modifications on two of its Spanish plants to the new emissions directives, while a third plant, in the Balearic Islands, will be partially closed in order to comply, although there is increasing regional pressure to completely close the plant.
Its main competitor, Iberdrola, said earlier this month that it intends to close its two remaining Spanish plants, without providing a date.
Indeed, considering the closures, under current projections, Endesa said Wednesday it sees Spain's reserve margin falling significantly amid the forecast closures.
The company expects Spain's reserve margin seen to drop to as low as 1.1 in 2030 from a 2015 level of 1.4. And this is despite a 40 GW gain, or 2.2% annual growth rate over the same period, in installed capacity -- all of it solar and wind.
While renewable output is seen rising from 61 TWh in 2015 to 82 TWh in 2020 and 184 TWh in 2030, thermal generation could fall by 50 TWh/year by 2030 as capacity is reduced by 7 GW, Endesa calculates.
This supports the company's previous stance against closures, whereby it argues that price spikes, increased emissions and reduced security of supply would result.
A total coal closure would mean the country would have to replace some of that capacity with new gas-fired plants, because renewables are too intermittent and new technologies such as battery storage are not yet mature enough, Bogas said.
A new round of renewable awards in Spain, which are obliged to be online by 2020, is expected to add between 8 GW and 9 GW to the supply side by 2020.
This should tighten the so-called "thermal gap" more than previously anticipated, with Endesa revising its 2020 figure for the amount of thermal generation required as back-up to renewables from 61 TWh down to 47 TWh.
However, as the winner of 874 MW of capacity, the company expects this, among other factors such as a return to normal for hydro levels after a particularly dry 2017, will contribute to an increased supply margin, from an expected level of Eur20/MWh for 2017 to around Eur24/MWh in 2020.
In the gas market, the company's procurement strategy, as well as an Asian-led rebound in demand could also lift the company's margin from an estimated Eur0.70/MWh in 2017 to Eur2.00/MWh by 2020, it said.
Domestically, the company, which has signed supply contracts with US exporter Cheniere, expects to boost gas sales by 6% between 2017 and 2020 to 75 TWh/year, equivalent to a 17% market share.
