Power production from German hard coal-fired power plants rebounded in September to its highest level since March, but remained 11% below last year's level mainly due to the closure of older coal plants, an analysis of grid operator data shows.
Hard coal plant output in September was 7.5 TWh, bringing the total so far this year to 64.7 TWh, down 10% compared to the first nine months in 2016, the data aggregated by Fraunhofer ISE shows, with data from EEX Transparency showing a very similar trend.
At the same time, Germany's gas-fired power plant output fell year-on-year for the second month in a row in September, down 37.5% at 2.5 TWh, the data shows.
Under REMIT transparency rules, only major plants (above 100 MW) have to report data with especially gas-fired output from smaller CHP plants under-represented during the winter heating period with the summer data more inclusive.
So far this year, gas plants have registered the biggest gains across conventional power plants, registering a 39% year-on-year gain in July, as generation economics have sharply improved in favor of gas compared to coal amid rising global coal prices.
The year-on-year declines in August and September are also against the backdrop of very strong gas output last summer after the month-ahead clean spark spread for modern CCGTs moved ahead of the clean dark spread for the oldest coal plants for the first time since around 2011, increasing the pressure on the oldest coal-fired power plant to close, with RWE and Steag shutting down a number of units this spring.
Platts generation spread pricing data shows little fundamental change this September. Rising fuel costs mainly lifted outright power prices amid expectations of higher demand for coal and gas plants this winter given reduced nuclear production across the dispatchable plant area.
With strong volatility for wind this September, ranging from near record levels on September 13 at 38 GW to a virtual total absence of wind four days later, the decline for flexible gas units is surprising.
Baseload lignite plants have been offering some flexibility to the system. Overall, lignite remains the stable baseload provider with 10.8 TWh generated in September, down just 4% on year with nuclear output some 6% below September 2016 at 6.4 TWh, mainly due to planned maintenance at the Neckarwestheim-2 reactor.
However, based on the Fraunhofer ISE data, Germany's wind turbines have generated more power so far this year than its coal plants, while solar output estimates are ahead of the TSO data registered gas plant output.
Overall, coal and renewables account for almost 80% of German electricity so far this year with the remainder shared by nuclear and gas, according to TSO data aggregated by Fraunhofer ISE.
Renewables' share of the mix for the Q1 to Q3 2017 period with some revision was 37.5%, although some revision is to be expected in the final annual numbers due to the underreporting of small thermal plants in the TSO data and production estimates for wind and solar.
