Asian renewables targets were likely to be missed, speakers at the International Association for Energy Economics international conference in Singapore said Monday, but they were divided over which fuel would make up the deficit in energy supply.
Indonesia aims to source 23% of its energy supply from renewables by 2025, but Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja, from the governing board of the Indonesian Institute of Energy Economics, said that it was doubtful.
Other developing countries faced similar challenges, he added.
North Asian countries were also likely to miss their renewables targets, which when set were more aspirational than achievable, Shell's Global Head of LNG Roger Bounds said.
Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of consultants FGE, agreed, saying that neither Japan nor South Korea were likely to meet their targets.
The implication is that a higher share of energy will be provided by other sources, compared with government forecasts, owing to the shortfall in renewables output.
Fesharaki said that LNG would be the default fuel as neither coal nor oil would be acceptable, owing to the higher levels of emissions.
For LNG to become the default option, it needs to play an explicit role as part of a credible long-term energy policy, but this was not the case in many countries, Bounds said.
In North Asia as well as in some Southeast and South Asian countries, coal was the default fuel, he added.
BP's latest Statistical Review of World Energy, released in June, showed that coal consumption by Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan and the Philippines soared between 15% and 23% year on year in 2016, even as gas demand that was strong earlier, slowed down.
China's coal consumption, however, fell 1.6% year on year, while gas demand rose by 7.7%. In India, demand for both commodities grew, but gas demand at 9.2% year-on-year growth outpaced coal consumption that rose 3.6% year on year.
