Asia seaborne thermal coal prices are likely to continue to trek south in the second half of this year, as the market works through a supply overhang and bearish Chinese import demand, according to Noble Group.
"There will be more pressure on prices in the short term," Rodrigo Echeverri, head of energy coal analysis at Noble Group, said at the 23rd Coaltrans Asia conference in Bali, Indonesia, Monday.
Echeverri said a drop in domestic Chinese coal prices to about Yuan 550/mt ($79.7/mt) FOB North China would impact Indonesian and Australian coal prices.
"With coal market protectionism back in, China [market] sentiments are weak," he said.
China imported 89 million mt of thermal coal during the first four months of 2017, up 30% from the same period last year, but the pace is likely to slow as the year progresses.
"There will be a slowdown in imports in China in the second half of the year," said Echeverri.
For the global thermal coal market, the trading company is estimating oversupply of 16 million mt in 2017, owing to an enthusiastic supply response from major supplying areas after recent price increases.
The trading company has not changed its long term view, however, of a structurally short coal market.
Indonesian, Russian and Colombian coal production are expected to be stronger this year compared to last, while Australian and South African production are expected to be stable.
CHINESE AND INDIAN IMPORTS
Power generation in China was strong between January and April this year, up 8%, and growth in thermal-generated power is around 9% and closer to 2015 levels, he said.
Hydro-electricity generation in China was lower by 11% in January- April, compared to the same period last year, and is expected to continue to stay lower due to a dry summer.
But, thermal coal production in China has increased compared to 2016 and is closer to levels seen in 2015. "Therefore, they can start stocking up and the market is less structurally short on coal in the short term," said Echeverri.
The inventory level at the power plants has increased in absolute terms, with stock currently at 19 days from 14 days.
Indian imports are set to drop by 15 million mt in 2017, but they would continue to import, said Echeverri.
"Zero imports is not possible in any imagination. One to two more years of contraction, after which imports could increase," he said, outlining his forecast for India. The year "2019 is likely to be the inflection point after which Indian imports could start increasing," Echeverri said.
INDONESIAN PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO GROW
Indonesian exports are likely to grow by 20 million mt year on year in 2017, he said.
The cost of production for the 4,200 kcal/kg GAR grade is around $25-$26/mt FOB mother vessel basis, said an Indonesian miner, adding: "We are still making money."
Echeverri feels the current price levels are pushing miners to continue with production expansion plans.
