February's US power demand of 288.4 TWh, which the US Energy Information Administration announced Tuesday, was the lowest total in the last seven years.
Utility coal stockpiles ended the month at 162 million st, up 2.9% from January, but down 13.6% from the year-ago month, when stockpiles shot higher as natural gas dropped to historic lows.
Since 2012, coal stockpiles in February -- the middle of winter -- have fallen an average of 3.1 million st. But February's total represented a build of 4.6 million st from the end of January.
The increase in stockpiles is likely behind the recent drop in coal production. Production estimates topped out at 17 million st in the week that ended February 4, but largely declined in the following weeks, reaching a low of 13.8 million st during the week that ended April 8.
Platts Analytics' Bentek Energy estimates weekly coal production has rebounded to 14.4 million st in the week that ended April 20, still 14.6% below the five-year average for production for the week.
As production has declined, stockpiles have remained relatively flat. Platts Analytics estimates US utility coal stockpiles stood at 159.3 million st for the week ended April 20, which would represent a draw of 1.2 million st since March.
In the last five years, stockpiles in April have risen an average of 6.7 million st, as utilities rebuild stockpiles in advance of summer. That does not appear to be happening this year, even as gas stays relative strong compared with last year.
February's stockpile figure of 162 million st was down 1.1% from the five-year average for the month, while the April estimate is down 7.9% from the five-year average for the month.
But declining stockpiles haven't translated into higher coal prices.
In February, bituminous stockpiles stood at 68.5 million st at the end of the month, down 10.7% from the year-ago month and down 6.6% from the five-year average for the month.
The February CSX price (for March delivery) averaged $57.23/st, up 53.4% from the year-ago price. But the April average (for May delivery) printed Tuesday at $51.14/st.
Subbituminous stockpiles stood at 89.1 million st at the end of February, down 16.2% from the year-ago month, but up 4.1% from the five-year average for the month.
The February Powder River Basin 8,800 Btu/lb price (for March delivery) averaged $12.03/st, up 22.1% from the year-ago price. But the April average (for May delivery) printed Tuesday at $11.43/st.
The recent drop in production and lower coal prices likely indicate utilities are trimming demand until a better picture of summer develops.
