Coking coal industry reference prices in the second and third quarters of 2017 may end up close to current spot prices, with a growing sense of market stability after a peak in prices seen at the end of last year, US investment bank FBR said Friday.
FBR said it cut its estimate for Q2 and Q3 coking coal benchmark prcing under the accords to $160/mt, from $180/mt previously, in an update from analysts led by Lucas Pipes.
"According to industry reports, Q2 met coal benchmark negotiations are ongoing. With premium coking coal spot prices hovering around $160/Mt FOB port Australia, we believe a settlement at or near this price is currently most likely," FBR said in a note.
"Considering the decline in spot prices during February to the low $150s, we believe the recent stabilization and potential Q2 settlement off the lows are encouraging signals of the market regaining equilibrium following a particularly volatile six months."
Coking coal spot prices peaked at over $300/mt FOB Australia in Q4 2016, before plunging to half of that level by February this year.
