The US market is expecting coking coal export volumes may grow in 2017 to recover from a recent contraction, but the jury is still out on any return to the "good old days" of 2011-2012.
The exports a source of increasing debate and interest helping determine overall global balance of supply and pricing for mainstay US exporters.
Ahead of December US government trade data out this month, November 2016's strong export volume for met coal is expected to be a precursor for a rise in volumes in a reaction to stronger global prices in Q4 2016, sources said at an industry event in Miami.
"The first half should be strong for exports, the second half is uncertain," said an industry source close to the US ports.
Increased met coal purchasing by Japan, and South Korea, along with a return in Indian appetite, and a recent spate of cargo to China, is noted in the seaborne markets, according to latest trade data and coal and freight sources.
The contraction in US met coal shipments in 2015 and 2016, reconfirming the US' swing supplier role in seaborne markets, lends a painful recent reminder and provides a subdued basis for any expansions.
The certainty around shipment volume growth may be less surefooted later this year, given large miners have already locked in much of Q1 and Q2 2017 export sales. Later sales volume and performance could depend on global contract and spot pricing led by Australia, and China's import appetite as well as wider health of steel trade, demand and industry pricing.
Met coal exports increased in November to 3.49 million mt, up 21.8% from October and up 34.4% from the year-ago month. It was the highest monthly total since August 2015.
Year-to-date met coal exports totaled 32.9 million mt, down 15.3% compared with the year-ago period.
Even with a bumper export volume for December, US met coal exports over 2016 may end up somewhat below 40 million mt, and around a third off the record high in 2012.
Industry expectations are some growth in output at existing and restarted mines will be exported based on more static domestic met coal demand.
But a recovery back to earlier shipment highs may be unlikely, as structural changes in US mining further limit any price dependent swings for loading volumes at East Coast and US Gulf ports.
