The US Energy Information Administration will estimate a 205-Bcf withdrawal to natural gas in underground storage for the reporting week that ended December 16, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts.
Estimates in the survey ranged for a draw of 194 Bcf to 215 Bcf.
The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report at 10:30 am EST (1530 GMT) Thursday.
A 205-Bcf pull would register over six times larger than the 33-Bcf draw reported at this time in 2015 and more than double the five-year average which is a 101-Bcf withdrawal, according to EIA data.
A draw within analysts' expectations of 205 Bcf would deplete stocks to 3.601 Tcf. It would shrink the storage surplus to only 82 Bcf above the five-year average. It would also drag stocks 222 below last year's level in the corresponding week. The pull would also be the largest withdrawal of the heating season by far. It would be the largest draw since a 211-Bcf pull was reported on January 22.
The withdrawal is forecast to be greater than last week?s announcement, when the EIA reported a 147-Bcf pull that reduced inventories to 3.806 Tcf, which was 1.3% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.856 Tcf, and 5.1% more than the five-year average of 3.620 Tcf. The withdrawal was about 10 Bcf stronger than the market expected.
Last week, temperatures averaged 38 degrees Fahrenheit, 4.4 degrees less than normal, across the US and dropped to as low as 32 degrees on Thursday, prompting an above-normal demand surge.
"The low temperatures led demand to peak as high as nearly 118 Bcf on Thursday, almost 33 Bcf above normal," said Mitch DeRubis, a quantitative modeling analyst with Platts Analytics.
"Week over week, the East, Midwest and South Central regions are expected to have made up the majority of the change in storage activity, up a forecast 19 Bcf, 29 Bcf and 21 Bcf, respectively," DeRubis said. "In the East region, sample withdrawal activity totaled 13.7 Bcf higher than the previous week's total at 39 Bcf. The largest change came from the Columbia Gas Transmission system which withdrew 16.1 Bcf compared to only 8.6 Bcf the week prior, a week-over-week gain of 7.5 Bcf."
