German electricity consumption is set to fall slightly this year, with demand for gas increasing 10%, energy industry group BDEW said Tuesday.
Gas will be the only conventional power generation source to increase its share in a German power mix still dominated by coal despite a slight fall in coal output, BDEW said.
Based on its latest estimates, domestic electricity consumption will fall 0.4% to 592.7 TWh, while gas demand was estimated at 940 TWh, the highest since 2013, the BDEW said.
Power production was up year on year at 648 TWh with Germany's net power export surplus rising to a record 55.5 TWh, replacing France as Europe's biggest exporter of electricity, the BDEW data showed.
Within the 2016 power mix, gas was the biggest gainer, increasing its share to around 12% from under 10% last year, while the combined coal and lignite share fell to 40%, still accounting for the biggest overall share in power generation and almost 250 TWh generated by coal and domestic lignite in Germany in 2016, the data shows.
GAS STARTING TO REPLACE COAL
The BDEW, whose data includes most gas-fired power plants including CHP units, estimated gas output will rise 16.5 TWh in 2016, mainly due to a 17% increase for its use used in combined heat and power plants (CHP).
By contrast, coal and lignite output dropped 12.2 TWh, losing one percentage point each in the power mix.
Nuclear output fell 7 TWh in 2016 with nuclear still accounting for 13% of the country's power generation, the data showed.
Renewable output rose an estimated 4 TWh with renewables share of total power generation at 29.5% -- rising to 32.3% based on domestic demand.
In its analysis, BDEW chief Stefan Kapferer said the gains for gas underlined it was an "indispensable part of the future energy system".
"However, we must ask ourselves what a future electricity market should look like in which renewables generate more than 60% of electricity. To this end, we need a concept for the long-term development of the renewable energy law in the direction of market-based instruments. We will have to continue this discussion with a view to 2030 and beyond," Kapferer said.
The government this year passed a number of key energy reforms intended to keep the so-called 'Energiewende' on track and reduce its overall costs.
The energy ministry also published a first roadmap for the 2030 targets when renewables are set to reach a 50% share in the power mix.
