German and French day-ahead power prices rose Monday amid low wind output, but contracts further out continued to fall with the mild weather outlook now stretching into the week before Christmas, while forward power fell further with EUA carbon allowances now trading just above their lowest in three years, after falling over 30% since mid-November, according to sources.
German year-ahead baseload power, the benchmark for European power, was heard just before noon London time at Eur29.40/MWh, down 55 euro cent from Friday's close which saw the contract fall below Eur30/MWh for the first time since early October.
EUA carbon allowances extended their decline trading below Eur4/mt for the first time since September, when the contract hit a three-year low. Carbon allowance prices have shed over 30% after trading just above Eur6/mt early November.
Front-year coal into Europe also eased, down 60 cents on the day to $64.65/mt with the slight drop offset by a stronger euro against the dollar as markets largely shrugged off the Italian referendum.
LOW WIND POWER IN GERMANY
In Germany, day-ahead baseload was last heard OTC at Eur51.25/MWh, up Eur5.50 from Monday's price Friday as wind output was seen sharply below average levels.
Epex Spot settled Tuesday above OTC at Eur58.33/MWh baseload and Eur70.55/MWh peakload, the highest spot settlements so far this year.
Wind power output was forecast to dip below 2 GW Tuesday after reaching peaks above 30 GW last Friday, according to EEX Transparency and spotrenewables.com.
Further out, however, wind was again forecast to rise sharply possibly reaching peaks above 20 GW by Thursday, the forecast showed. Conventional plant availability for hard coal and lignite was pegged at 33.6 GW Tuesday with nuclear adding 10.1 GW, data from EEX Transparency showed.
Further out on the prompt, week-ahead baseload shed Eur1.50 to trade below Eur37/MWh, with the final full working week before Christmas trading at Eur36/MWh.
In France, day-ahead baseload power was last heard trading on the OTC market at Eur66/MWh, while peakload was last heard at Eur72.75//MWh.
Epex Spot settled day-ahead power higher on the day with baseload at Eur66.21/MWh and peakload at Eur73.35/MWh.
French demand for electricity was set to increase Tuesday to a high of 78.6 GW in the morning peak hours, up from 77.3 GW Monday during the same hours, data from French grid operator RTE showed, as temperatures were seen hovering just below the seasonal norm.
Further out, however, temperatures were set to rise above the norm damping demand and confirming the bearish signal to the market with Q1 and Cal 17 registering another massive drop, falling over Eur3 from Friday's close to trade at Eur63/MWh and Eur38.50/MWh respectively.
