The UK's NBP spot gas market was bullish Tuesday morning as the system switched from the substantial length seen Monday morning to balance, with day-on-day changes in Norwegian imports and those through the IUK pipeline behind much of the supply downswing.
Within-day and day-ahead contracts were assessed at 46.50 p/th and 46.40 p/th, respectively, at the 11:00 London time close, compared with the day-ahead price assessed at Monday's close at 44.90 p/th.
The UK system nudged into the short side Tuesday morning, with forecast demand at 293 million cu m and forecast supply at 292 million cu m, in contrast with the 30 million cu m length Monday morning.
Part of the supply downswing came from Norwegian flows into the St Fergus NSMP subterminal, which receives gas from the Heimdal gas hub on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Norwegian flows into the subterminal were 18 million cu m/d at 1100 GMT, down from 26 million cu m/d Monday at the same time.
Imports through the IUK pipeline fell to 10 million cu m/d at 1100 GMT from 30 million cu m/d Monday morning, while the less spot-price responsive pipeline, the BBL, churned at a comparatively steady 32 million cu m/d rate Tuesday morning, down just 3 million cu m/d on the day.
Total notified the market of an unplanned flow loss of 11.5 million cu m/d at Bacton SEAL terminal Tuesday at 0550 GMT, estimated to last seven hours.
Infeed from Bacton SEAL was 7 million cu m/d at 1100 GMT, down from around 17 million cu m/d Monday at the same time.
Owing to the tight within-day market, storage facilities jumped in on the action Tuesday morning, withdrawing at a combined rate of 30 million cu m/d at 1100 GMT, up from zero Monday.
Strong withdrawals sent the NBP March contract surging, changing hands at 46.80 p/th Tuesday morning, compared to Monday's market close of 45.90 p/th.
In demand, LDZ offtake was nominated at 218 million cu m/d at 1000 GMT, with Tuesday's total LDZ demand forecast at 210 million cu m, according to Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy.
The near term LDZ demand forecast for the UK is relatively stable, with Wednesday and Thursday pegged at 215 million cu m and 211 million cu m, respectively, the data shows.
The NBP front-month December was pulled up by the spot, changing hands at 47.65 p/th, up from 46.975 p/th assessed at Monday's close.
