In the final day of trading before expiration, the NYMEX November natural gas futures contract fluctuated around Wednesday's settlement before ultimately rising 3.3 cents to close at $2.764/MMBtu Thursday following the release of the US Energy Information Administration's storage report.
The latest US EIA weekly storage gas data, for the week ending October 21, showed a 73-Bcf injection into storage, bringing total stocks to 3.909 Tcf, closer to the 4 Tcf level last surpassed in mid-November 2015, according to EIA data.
While this build falls near the 75 Bcf expected from a consensus of analysts S&P Global Platts surveyed, which limited the data's market impact, this is the first injection since April 1 to break above the previous year's build.
Before moving to the prompt month, the December contract stabilized after falling 28.3 cents from Monday to Wednesday, increasing 3.2 cents to trade at $3.068/MMBtu Thursday.
According to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, the December contract run up can be attributed to a combination of November expiration and the prospects for more seasonal weather for the second half of November.
For the first half, the National Weather Service predicts above-average temperatures over much of the continental US, placing much of the country in a temperature zone that may limit heating and cooling demand through November 9. Platts Analytics' Bentek Energy projects demand to hover around 67.8 Bcf/d, almost 2.88 Bcf/d below the comparable year-ago period, with much of the decrease from a 3.26 Bcf/d drop in power burn, while residential/commercial demand remains largely stable.
Down the curve, all of the 2017 futures contracts stabilized and settled between 5 cents and 6.5 cents higher after tumbling early in the week.
The NYMEX settlement is considered preliminary and subject to change until a final settlement price is posted at 7 pm EDT (2300 GMT).
