China's alumina import volumes, which have been relatively low during the nine months to September, are expected to swell significantly during the months of October and November, industry sources said.
A bullish domestic alumina market in the last two months has caused local prices to soar ahead of the international market, boosting the appeal of imported tons.
China imported 2.03 million mt of alumina between January and August, about 27% lower than the same period a year ago. The customs office has yet to release the import figure for September but it is generally expected to be relatively low, as the international market was trading at a sizable premium to the Chinese market at the time.
In a balanced market environment, Chinese consumers are typically prepared to pay up to $10-$15/mt premiums for Australian alumina for its better quality.
However since late-September, steep domestic price increases have rendered Australia alumina cheaper than Chinese supply.
On October 19, the Australian discount blew out to $27/mt and Yuan 179/mt on an import parity basis compared with Chinese alumina from Shanxi province, by S&P Global Platts estimates. The Australian discount has eased since to $9/mt and Yuan 62/mt on October 21.
Since the second-half of September, China has been burdened with severe congestion and cost increases in overland transportation, following a nationwide crackdown on overloading of cargoes. In addition, maximum load allowances have been lowered.
These measures have raised the cost of local transportation by about 30%, and slashed rail and trucking capacity by 30%, market sources said.
The Platts Australian alumina daily assessment has risen $56.50/mt in the last month to $287/mt FOB on October 21, while the Platts Shanxi daily assessment has surged Yuan 530/mt ($78.45) to Yuan 2,530/mt ex-works.
