The NYMEX November natural gas futures contract fell Thursday after the US Energy Information Administration estimated a build to gas storage stocks that was slightly higher than analysts expected.
The November contract ended trading Thursday at $3.141/MMBtu, down 2.9 cents. The front-month contract traded in a range between $3.101/MMBtu and $3.201/MMBtu.
The EIA said there was a 77-Bcf injection to storage in the week ended October 14. The injection was 5 Bcf higher than analysts' consensus of a 72-Bcf build.
The cumulative storage volume now stands at 3.836 Tcf. The total working gas in storage is 175 Bcf, or 4.8%, higher the five-year average storage volume of 3.651 Tcf. The storage stocks are also 46 Bcf higher than last year at this time.
"Look at where we've been recently," Jay Levine, analyst/principal with Enerjay, said in an interview. "The improving technicals have put the bears on notice. We should be careful now as, perhaps, $3 may become the new bottom." Meantime, dry gas supplies for the Lower 48 states on Thursday are expected to be about 70.4 Bcf, according to Platts Analytics' Bentek Energy.
However, daily demand will also drop by 1 Bcf as the eastern US received another day of warm temperatures.
The US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center published a bearish three-month forecast for November, December and January. Chances are high for above-average temperatures across New England, the Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and the central and western half of the nation. The southeastern states showed the best chance for average temperatures, while no area of the continental US was forecast as being likely for a below-normal start to the winter season.
The NYMEX settlement is considered preliminary and subject to change until a final settlement price is posted at 7 pm EDT (2300 GMT).
